Where is the US-China relationship headed in 2022?

The US and China noticed their rivalry attain new heights in 2021 as each international locations launched into commerce, protection and diplomatic insurance policies marked by elevated suspicion, and antagonism.
This pattern appears to be like more likely to proceed into 2022. In the United States, bitterly divided Democrats and Republicans heading into pivotal mid-term elections can agree on one factor: there isn’t a room for being mushy on China.
In Beijing, Chinese President Xi Jinping is making ready to additional cement his energy at China’s helm throughout the celebration congress in October, with the Communist Party absolutely behind his hardline insurance policies.
An icy begin to the yr
The Beijing Winter Olympics portends a rocky begin to 2022. The US has already mentioned it won’t ship authorities officers to the video games, and the UK and Australia have joined Washington’s diplomatic boycott. China, in response, promised unspecified “consequences” for the transfer.
Tensions are more likely to enhance as February approaches, with the US utilizing the video games and the boycott to attract consideration to China’s crackdown on the Uyghur Muslim minority within the Xinjiang area.
In Hong Kong, Beijing’s continued stress on the territory’s civil liberties may also proceed into 2022, as increasingly more pro-democracy activists are incarcerated beneath a nationwide safety legislation that was put in place in 2020.
A display screen exhibits Chinese President Xi Jinping attending a digital assembly with US President Joe Biden by way of video hyperlink, at a restaurant in Beijing. (Reuters)
“I believe this tension between China and the US will continue in 2022, including in the areas of human rights, geopolitics and security,” mentioned Wu Qiang, an unbiased political commentator based mostly in Beijing.
“This is a situation that the leaderships of both China and the United States are happy to see and anticipate. I don’t think they will take any effective measures to reduce the tension in this situation, but they will control it,” he added.
Taiwan battle unlikely in 2022
As Hong Kong’s particular autonomy is slowly being worn away by Beijing, close by Taiwan watches warily as Chinese planes in current months have carried out a whole lot of sorties into its protection identification zone.
In 2021, the US has angered Beijing by sending unofficial delegations of lawmakers to Taiwan and expressing help for the federal government of Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen.
China abhors any query of Taiwanese independence. Under Xi, Beijing is pursuing a coverage of inevitable “reunion” of Taiwan with the mainland. China might be anticipated in 2022 to proceed opposing makes an attempt at diplomatic recognition of Taiwan, together with efforts by Taipei to take part in worldwide organizations.

As tensions proceed within the Taiwan Strait, the potential of a Chinese army invasion is seen as probably the most harmful potential flashpoint for armed battle between the US and China. However, because the Communist Party prepares for its large occasion, they’re extra more likely to need stability than sabre-rattling.
“The risk of a PRC attack on Taiwan prior to the 20th Party Congress in the fall of 2022 is very low,” mentioned Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia Program on the German Marshall Fund of the US.
“Xi Jinping is unlikely to take such a risk that might put in jeopardy securing a third five-year term in power,” Glaser informed DW.
Overall, within the South China Sea, the US and its allies will proceed finishing up “freedom of navigation” naval maneuvers in worldwide waters claimed by Beijing. China is slowly however certainly growing its navy to defend these pursuits, however a naval battle within the waters is one thing each side wish to keep away from.
US-China tech decoupling
Cybersecurity shall be a giant concern transferring ahead, affecting each financial and strategic coverage. In 2021, the US accused China of sponsoring huge information hacks. Washington has additionally opposed the worldwide deployment of Chinese next-generation communications expertise, particularly 5G.
The US drive to isolate Chinese expertise from the remainder of the world appears to be like more likely to proceed in 2022, with Washington not holding up on making it tough for Chinese companies to amass vital US-made {hardware}.
“The US is just beginning to implement tighter restrictions on technology transfer to China, and there will be more steps taken in 2022,” mentioned Glaser.
In 2022, the US Department of Defense is anticipated to shut regulatory loopholes that, for instance, have allowed Chinese semiconductor maker SMIC to buy vital US expertise, and different Chinese entities will doubtless be added to the US Commerce Department’s blacklist, Glaser added.
Export controls are additionally beneath dialogue with US allies, together with screening of outbound international direct funding to China, she mentioned.
The Communist Party’s heavy-handed crackdown on the nation’s champions of business, particularly within the tech sector, can also be a trigger for concern. Added stress from each US and Chinese regulators on international funding in Chinese corporations is more likely to maintain world traders cautious in 2022.
‘Confrontation remains the main theme’
China’s financial enlargement is anticipated to gradual in 2022, with some estimates suggesting that development might be simply 5% subsequent yr. Some analysts say this might present an incentive for Beijing to work with the US on softening Trump-era commerce obstacles.
In November, Biden and Xi held a teleconference throughout which each leaders pledged to handle competitors sooner or later. But observers stay skeptical in regards to the prospect of the 2 international locations working collectively to amicably resolve their variations.
“I think the easing of economic and trade tensions between China and the US is probably temporary, as confrontation remains the main theme,” mentioned Shen Ling, an economist on the East China University of Science and Technology.
“As the economic power between the two countries changes, China is now closer to the United States than ever in terms of economic strength. Therefore, the bilateral relationship will be more about competition rather than cooperation.”
Both sides have gotten more and more locked in an existential competitors to show which system of governance is superior. For China as a rising energy, it’s state-controlled capitalism and the “rise of the East.”
“Domestic politics will heavily influence both US and Chinese policies in 2022 due to China’s 20th Party Congress and the US mid-term elections. Therefore, I’m not optimistic that significant progress will be made on any issue,” mentioned Glaser. “However, if it is in the interests of both countries to make some agreements, that remains possible.”