Explained | What Pakistan, Taliban ending ceasefire means for Islamabad

By Faran Jeffery: On November 28, in a letter issued by its protection chief Mufti Muzahim, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militant group that has been waging conflict towards the Pakistani state for over a decade now, formally introduced an finish of the ceasefire with Pakistan. In its assertion, TTP accused the Pakistani state of not adhering to the ceasefire and pointed in direction of the assorted safety operations by Pakistani safety forces, significantly a latest operation in Lakki Marwat space of the Khyber Pukhtunkhwa province, as the principle motive for ending the ceasefire.

On November 9, 2021, TTP and the Pakistani state introduced a one-month ceasefire, throughout which TTP cells in Afghanistan and Pakistan regrouped, whereas Pakistan reportedly launched a whole lot of TTP militants as a part of the understanding with TTP. This ceasefire later collapsed with TTP resuming its assaults and the then-Pakistani Interior Minister saying, “TTP’s demands were not possible for us to accept, we didn’t make any contact with TTP after the collapse of ceasefire, if TTP wants to hold talks within the constitutional boundaries then great, if TTP fights then we will fight too.” On November 10, 2021, a day after the tip of one-month ceasefire, TTP launched an interview of its chief Noor Wali Mehsud, the place he mentioned that there was no progress in talks with the Pakistani state.

ALSO READ | Pakistan policeman amongst 3 killed in suicide blast in Quetta

On April 29, 2022, TTP launched a press release from its chief Noor Wali Mehsud asserting an 11-day ceasefire with the state of Pakistan forward of Eid-ul-Fitr. Just earlier than this announcement, TTP launched an infographic on its assaults within the month of April, which famous a complete of 54 assaults.

Around the primary week of May, TTP introduced intensifying operations towards Pakistan in case the ceasefire collapsed, however in a follow-up assertion, TTP as soon as once more prolonged the ceasefire for five extra days. Then on May 18, TTP launched one other assertion extending the ceasefire to May 30. Then on May 31, it was introduced by each TTP and the Pakistani authorities that the ceasefire has been prolonged indefinitely. Around the tip of August 2022, the TTP indicated that it will likely be finishing up “defensive attacks” towards Pakistani police and safety forces in response to what it claimed have been continued counter-terrorism operations being carried out in the course of the ceasefire. Following this announcement of “defensive attacks”, TTP as soon as once more began claiming assaults, typically claiming a number of assaults in a day. These “defensive attacks” have been largely restricted to KP province and continued till November 28, when the TTP formally introduced an finish of the ceasefire and ordered its militants to start nationwide operations.

It is pertinent to notice right here that even when TTP was not claiming any assaults itself – which lasted from the Eid-ul-Fitr ceasefire of 2022 to TTP’s announcement of “defensive attacks” – the assaults towards Pakistani safety forces continued on the bottom. Several of those assaults stay unclaimed, whereas others have been claimed by Hafiz Gul Bahadur Group in addition to another smaller teams, which all of a sudden grew to become energetic throughout this era. Two such notable smaller teams value mentioning listed below are Lashkar-e-Khurasan and Ittehad Musallah Islami Mujahideen (IMIM or IMAM) group. The IMAM group used to function again in 2013 as Ansar-ul-Mujahideen and it nonetheless has the identical spokesperson it appears, though it has now modified its flag and title and began claiming assaults in KP province in the course of the TTP ceasefire interval. Lashkar-e-Khurasan had been dormant for a very long time and hadn’t claimed any main assaults till it all of a sudden grew to become energetic in the course of the ceasefire interval.

ALSO READ | 10 terrorists killed by safety forces in Pakistan’s Balochistan

It is value noting right here that whereas all three teams – Hafiz Gul Bahadur Group, Lashkar-e-Khurasan, IMAM group – should not a part of the TTP umbrella, all three of them preserve shut ties with TTP commanders and leaders. They not solely have the identical ideology, goals and targets because the TTP and preserve shut contact with the bigger jihadi umbrella, however in addition they have household and tribal ties with TTP members.

During the ceasefire interval, when the assaults have been being claimed by these smaller militant teams, most analysts and journalists in Pakistan tried to color a story that these teams haven’t any relation with the TTP and that TTP is strictly adhering to the ceasefire. During this time, I used to be maybe the one analyst who repeatedly addressed the issue with this principle by stating that these smaller teams are performing as TTP’s B-Team. With the assistance of those teams, TTP was capable of preserve deniability in the course of the ceasefire interval whereas the assaults continued on the bottom. The TTP used this technique to remain on good phrases with the Afghan Taliban – and the Haqqani Network specifically – who had initially performed the position of a mediator in bringing concerning the ceasefire. During this ceasefire interval, once I talked to some Afghan Taliban sources concerning the assaults being claimed by smaller militant teams, I used to be advised that the Afghan Taliban solely mediated a ceasefire between TTP and Pakistan, and that the Taliban weren’t accountable for different militant teams working in Pakistan, and that it’s Pakistan’s inside problem which it should resolve by itself. But whereas TTP and its B-Team have been finishing up assaults, the Pakistani state and its mouthpieces within the Pakistani media stored on downplaying the menace and in some circumstances even made defensive arguments to supply cowl to TTP. It was steered that “Pakistan’s enemies” don’t desire peace and are due to this fact exaggerating the TTP menace. To peddle this narrative, some native journalists have been employed by the state to steer the narrative, whereas on the identical time, social media groups operating pretend propaganda accounts have been additionally set as much as goal anybody who was highlighting the rising TTP menace in Swat and elsewhere in KP province. This occurred whereas locals in Swat have been taking out large protests towards rising militancy of their space. In most circumstances, these protests weren’t given mass protection by the native mainstream TV media and as an alternative, the protection was largely restricted to social media.

Now that the TTP has formally ended the ceasefire and known as for nationwide assaults, it’s anticipated to hold out assaults outdoors of KP province. Two key excessive threat areas to observe can be Balochistan and Karachi; TTP has maintained cells and networks in each of those places outdoors of KP province and there was important improve in TTP’s extortion and different actions in Karachi previously few months.

ALSO READ | General Asim Munir takes cost as Pakistan’s new Army chief

As if to determine its phrase, on November 30, the TTP carried out a suicide bombing in Quetta, Balochistan, focusing on a police convoy, which resulted within the full destruction of at the least one police truck. According to native sources, a number of folks, together with policemen, have been killed whereas over 20 folks have been wounded. The assault has been formally claimed by the TTP in a press release the place it additionally claimed that this new sequence of assaults can be carried out within the reminiscence of Omar Khalid Khurasani, who was killed in a mysterious assault in Barmal, Paktika, Afghanistan in early August in the course of the ceasefire interval. The TTP blamed the Pakistani state for his dying.

The TTP has ended the ceasefire at a time when Pakistan has appointed its new military chief, General Asim Munir Ahmed, who is predicted to distance his establishment from the Bajwa doctrine, which additionally noticed the coverage of peace talks and a ceasefire with the TTP, ensuing within the reemergence of TTP in Pakistan’s tribal areas. This is a time of political instability in Pakistan and the federal authorities will seemingly discover it difficult to navigate by the mess left behind by the outgoing management of the navy institution. It can be value noting that whereas the TTP has ended its ceasefire solely now, its different actions like extortion and kidnapping continued unabated in areas like Swat, Waziristan, and many others even in the course of the ceasefire interval, and these actions are solely anticipated to extend within the coming days. TTP has additionally gotten its arms on some new overseas weapons and tools – together with evening imaginative and prescient tools – from Afghanistan, following final 12 months’s Taliban takeover. In some circumstances, the Taliban gifted armored autos and different tools to the TTP as its justifiable share of collaborating alongside the Taliban within the conflict towards overseas forces in Afghanistan.

TTP’s announcement ending the ceasefire additionally got here at a time when a Pakistani delegation, led by the State Minister of Foreign Affairs Hina Rabbani Khar, had simply landed in Kabul to carry conferences with the Afghan Taliban leaders. While Pakistani authorities statements claimed that the agenda included points like commerce, refugees, visa regime, and many others, it’s understood that the problem of cross-border terrorism and the TTP was additionally one thing that the Pakistani delegation was seeking to talk about with the Afghan Taliban. TTP has not solely discovered refuge in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, however has additionally carried out dozens of cross-border assaults from Afghanistan since final 12 months’s Taliban takeover, whereas on the identical time there have additionally been events when TTP and Taliban fighters carried out joint assaults towards Pakistani border forces. It is unlikely that TTP would have ended the ceasefire with out taking some Afghan Taliban leaders into confidence.

ALSO READ | Pakistan Army’s resolution to stay apolitical will protect it from ‘vagaries of politics’, says Gen Bajwa

Earlier in November, an Afghan Taliban fighter walked right into a Pakistani border outpost and opened hearth on Pakistani troopers inside, killing and wounding a number of personnel. He then walked again into Afghanistan. In response, Pakistan closed the Chaman border and known as on the Taliban handy over the assault. Instead of handing over the attacker, Taliban accounts on social media circulated a video confession of the attacker the place he not solely confesses his actions but in addition calls on Pushtuns in Pakistan to stand up and wage jihad towards the Pakistani state. Later, some Pakistani journalists and Afghan media have been fed the pretend information that Taliban had handed over the attacker to Pakistan and, in consequence, Pakistan is reopening its border with Afghanistan. However, an investigation revealed that the attacker was not handed over and stays with the Taliban in Afghanistan.

It can be value stating that Pakistan is predicted to go right into a normal election subsequent 12 months, and if the Pakistani state does not act rapidly towards the TTP, the nation will seemingly see yet one more bloody election cycle the place political events could be focused by the militants as soon as once more.

A scathing November 30 editorial by Pakistan’s English language paper Dawn criticised the state’s method in direction of coping with the TTP, saying, “Over the last few months, however, the state has been dishing out spin rather than facts to an increasingly uneasy public. As recently as September, the authorities were insisting that the threat of a militancy redux was an exaggeration.”

Pakistan will quickly discover out that TTP has used the ceasefire interval not simply to regroup and rearm itself but in addition to re-establish its networks nicely past the KP province. The warnings of these of us who have been principally towards any peace talks with the TTP are sadly turning out to be true. Pakistan is headed in direction of extra turmoil.

(Faran Jeffery is the Deputy Director of Islamic Theology of Counter Terrorism (ITCT), a UK-based Counter Islamist Terrorism assume tank)

Published On:

Nov 30, 2022