Can the European Union’s local weather change plan work in Southeast Asia?

Written by David Hutt
The EU has earmarked thousands and thousands of euros for supporting local weather pleasant improvement in Southeast Asia. But the EU’s local weather diplomacy within the area is up towards financial progress fueled by soiled vitality.
After the European Union turned a “strategic partner” of the Association of the Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) bloc in December 2020, each blocs pledged to make local weather change coverage a key space of cooperation.
The EU, already the biggest supplier of improvement help to the ASEAN area, has dedicated thousands and thousands of euros to varied environmental applications.
This contains €5 million ($5.86 million) to the ASEAN Smart Green Cities initiative and one other €5 million in direction of a brand new technique of stopping deforestation, referred to as the Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade in ASEAN.

Along with multilateral help, the EU additionally works with particular person ASEAN member states on eco-friendly insurance policies like Thailand’s Bio-Circular-Green Economic Model and Singapore’s Green Plan 2030.
For years, the EU has been engaged on local weather motion in Southeast Asia by organizing dialogues and technical help initiatives. Igor Driesmans, the EU’s ASEAN ambassador lately stated the 2 blocs would quickly begin a “dedicated dialogue” on clear vitality transition.
However, Brussels faces an uphill wrestle to show across the area’s environmental coverage.
“The EU has been somewhat proactive in engaging with Southeast Asia on tackling climate change, but overall Southeast Asia is going in the wrong direction in many areas on climate change,” Joshua Kurlantzick, senior fellow for Southeast Asia on the Council on Foreign Relations, informed DW.
Five ASEAN states had been among the many fifteen international locations most affected by local weather change between 1999–2018, in response to the Climate Risk Index 2020.

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Southeast Asia’s coal-powered economies
As a fast-developing area, the place financial progress, urbanization and home consumption charges are anticipated to spike within the coming a long time, Southeast Asia’s vitality demand is projected to develop 60% by 2040.
This will contribute to a two-thirds rise in CO2 emissions to virtually 2.4 gigatons, in response to the Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2019.
Of the quite a few environmental issues dealing with the area, maybe probably the most consequential is the persevering with uptake of coal for electrical energy era, stated Nithi Nesadurai, the regional coordinator of Climate Action Network Southeast Asia.
“This is contributing to rising emissions and does not augur well for the region, even as the share of renewable energy in the energy mix increases at marginal levels,” he informed DW.
Southeast Asia is among the few areas of the world the place coal utilization has elevated up to now decade. In 2019, the area consumed round 332 million tons of coal, practically double the consumption from a decade earlier, in response to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Of that, Indonesia accounted for 42% and Vietnam practically a 3rd. In 2019, the area’s imports of thermal coal rose by 19% in contrast with the earlier yr, in response to an IEA report.
Energy generated from coal doubled within the Philippines between 2011 and 2018, when it accounted for 53% of vitality consumption, in response to the nation’s Department of Energy.
Coal is anticipated to account for greater than 50% of Vietnam’s vitality provide by 2030, the World Coal Association, an trade physique, predicts.

Even Laos, which has constructed lots of of hydropower dams over the previous decade, noticed coal-fired vitality manufacturing rise from virtually nothing to 10,000 GWh in 2017.
In February, Laos’ deputy minister of vitality and mines, Daovong Phoneke, introduced that two new coal-fired vitality crops, with investments price as much as $4 billion, will open by the top of the yr, principally to export vitality to neighboring international locations.
According to a research printed in November within the journal of Energy and Climate Change, coal-fired vitality will overtake pure fuel as the principle energy supply within the ASEAN area by 2030. And by 2040 it may account for nearly 50% of the area’s projected CO2 emissions.
Is the EU ignoring coal in Southeast Asia?
However, coal-fired energy manufacturing is never, if ever, talked about by the EU in its local weather coverage in Southeast Asia.
After the second EU-ASEAN High-Level Dialogue on Environment and Climate Change in November, a post-dialogue assertion by the 2 blocs didn’t reference coal-fired vitality. Neither is coal talked about intimately within the Blue Book 2020, a 47-page information that lays out EU-ASEAN partnership.
“The mix of a strong research base, policy advice, feasibilities for collaboration, and access to finance should help them to cope with the transition,” stated Driesmans, the EU ambassador, referring to the ASEAN bloc’s local weather change exercise.
“As part of the forthcoming dialogue on Clean Energy between the EU and ASEAN, we hope to be able to support ASEAN in its energy transition, including all relevant aspects: renewable energy, energy efficiency, grid integration, climate finance and coal phase out.,” he added.
The EU tends to take a extra delicate method. The EU-Vietnam free commerce settlement, which got here into impact final yr, commits Vietnam to creating efforts in direction of renewable vitality manufacturing however there isn’t a specific point out of limiting its coal-fired vitality consumption.
“The EU should be more proactive in trying to help Southeast Asian states wean themselves off of coal-fired plants,” stated Kurlantzick. “Of course, this is on the Southeast Asian states as well, and also on China, which is essentially exporting coal-fired plants,” he added.
Big cash in soiled vitality
Indeed, if the EU takes a powerful forceful stance on coal consumption within the area, it may spark anger from the principle exporters of the commodity, China, India and Australia.
Brussels’ local weather change coverage within the area has already been met with resistance.
Indonesia final yr initiated proceedings on the World Trade Organization towards the EU’s phased ban on palm-oil imports. Brussels contends the ban is to guard the setting, however Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil producer, says it’s mere protectionism.
Malaysia, the world’s second-largest palm oil producer, has vowed to face with Jakarta in its battle towards the EU.
In the most recent State of Southeast Asian survey, printed in February by Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, some 43% of respondents stated they trusted the EU due to its stance on the setting, human rights, and local weather change.
However, 15.1% stated they distrusted the EU for that reason, believing its environmental coverage may threaten their nation’s pursuits and sovereignty.
The different downside for the EU is that it dangers accusations of hypocrisy if it takes too forceful a stance on coal-fired vitality manufacturing in Southeast Asia.
“It must show leadership by example. It cannot pressure countries in Southeast Asia to shift away from coal when it is struggling to do the same in some countries in the EU,” stated Nesadurai, from Climate Action Network Southeast Asia.
Production and consumption of coal have dropped massively within the EU in current a long time. Hard coal consumption fell from 300 million tons in 1999 to 176 million tons in 2019, roughly half of the Southeast Asian coal consumption charge that yr, in response to EU knowledge.
But Poland and the Czech Republic stay depending on coal-fired vitality manufacturing, though the previous contributed to virtually 95% of the EU’s complete arduous coal manufacturing by 2019. And, in response to the International Energy Agency, Southeast Asia and Europe every accounted for round 11% of the world’s thermal coal imports in 2019.

“I think Southeast Asian countries would welcome [more] EU aid,” stated Kurlantzick. “But I don’t know that they are going to change their reliance on coal fired plants.”