After AUKUS, Russia sees a possible risk and a possibility to market its personal submarines

The world opinions on the brand new AUKUS safety pact between Australia, the US and the UK have been decidedly blended. China and France instantly blasted the deal, whereas others, similar to Japan and the Philippines, have been extra welcoming.
Russia, one of many different few nations armed with nuclear-powered submarines, was extra low-key and cautious in its preliminary response.
The Kremlin restricted its official commentary to a rigorously crafted assertion that mentioned, “Before forming a position, we must understand the goals, objectives, means. These questions need to be answered first. There is little information so far.”
Some Russian diplomatic officers joined their Chinese counterparts in expressing their issues that Australia’s growth of nuclear-powered submarines (with American and British assist) would undermine the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and “speed up an arms race” within the area.
They recommended the development of the nuclear submarine fleet would should be overseen by the International Atomic Energy Agency — a proposition unlikely to be acceptable to Canberra.

‘Prototype of an Asian NATO’
As extra grew to become recognized concerning the new safety pact, the rhetoric of Kremlin officers started to shift.
For occasion, former Australian ambassador to the US, Joe Hockey, boldly declared AUKUS was meant to counter not solely China’s energy within the Indo-Pacific area, however Russia’s, too.
Soon after, the secretary of Russia’s Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, was calling the pact a “prototype of an Asian NATO”. He added, “Washington will try to involve other countries in this organisation, chiefly in order to pursue anti-China and anti-Russia policies.”
Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev. (Reuters)
This change of rhetoric mustn’t come as a shock to Canberra. Russia has lengthy thought of any change to regional safety — the creation of recent alliances, as an illustration, or the deployment of recent weapons programs — a navy danger that will require a response.
Marketing its personal nuclear submarines
So, what doable choices may Russia entertain as a part of its response?
Since Moscow’s view of AUKUS is extra of a political and navy danger, however not but a risk, its instant responses are more likely to be restricted to political manoeuvring and alternative grabbing.
Perhaps most notably, Russia may even see the AUKUS submarine deal as setting a precedent, permitting it to advertise its personal nuclear-submarine know-how to events within the area. This just isn’t merely hypothetical — it has been recommended by defence specialists with shut hyperlinks to Russia’s Ministry of Defence.

Historically, Russia has held again from sharing its nuclear submarine know-how, which is taken into account among the many finest on the earth, definitely superior to China’s nascent capabilities.
Thus far, Moscow has solely entered into leasing preparations with India, permitting its navy to function Soviet- and Russian-made nuclear-powered assault submarines since 1987. But this has not entailed the switch of know-how to India.
Should Russia resolve to market its nuclear-powered submarines to different nations, it could haven’t any scarcity of consumers. As one navy skilled recommended, Vietnam or Algeria are potential markets — however there may very well be others. As he put it, “Literally before our eyes, a new market for nuclear powered submarines is being created. […] Now we can safely offer a number of our strategic partners.”
Expanding its submarine drive within the Pacific
In the longer run, Russia may also not disregard the apparent: the brand new pact unites two nuclear-armed nations (the US and UK) and a soon-to-be-nuclear-capable Australia.
The expanded endurance and vary of Australia’s future submarines may see them working within the western and northwestern Pacific, areas of normal exercise for Russia’s naval drive.
Should the strike programs on board these submarines have the Russian far east or elements of Siberia inside their vary, it could be a game-changer for Moscow.

As a nuclear superpower, Russia might want to issue this into its strategic planning. And this implies Australia should maintain a detailed watch on Russia’s navy actions within the Pacific within the coming years.
Over the following 12 months, as an illustration, the Russian Pacific Fleet is predicted to obtain a minimum of three nuclear-powered submarines.
Two of those fourth-generation submarines (the Yasen-M class) are technologically superior to comparable vessels at present being constructed by the Chinese and are believed to be nearly akin to the American nuclear submarines being thought of an possibility for Australia.

The third is a 30,000-tonne, modified Oscar II class Belgorod submarine transformed to hold a number of nuclear super-torpedos able to destroying main naval bases.
Deepening naval ties with China
In essentially the most dramatic situation, Russia and China may kind a unfastened maritime coalition to counter the mixed navy energy of the AUKUS pact.
Given the deepening state of Russia-China defence relations, significantly within the naval sphere, this doesn’t appear unrealistic.

This doable coalition is unlikely to grow to be an precise maritime alliance, not to mention the idea for bigger bloc involving different nations. Still, if Russia and China have been to coordinate their naval actions, that will be dangerous information for the AUKUS.
Should tensions escalate, Moscow and Beijing may see Australia because the weakest hyperlink of the pact. In its typical bombastic language, China’s Global Times newspaper has already referred to Australia as a “potential target for a nuclear strike”.
This is perhaps a far-fetched situation, however by getting into the nuclear submarine race within the Indo-Pacific, Australia would grow to be a part of an elite membership, a few of whom can be adversaries. And there may be the potential for this to result in a naval Cold War of types within the Indo-Pacific.
Sceptics might say Moscow is more likely to be all speak however no motion and the dangers posed by Russia to Australia are minimal. Let’s hope that is right.