With 38 per cent deficit, Kerala in grip of worst monsoon in a century

Express News Service

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: As the monsoon season nears its finish, Kerala is on the point of experiencing the most- poor wet season in 100 years. The sometimes dependable southwest monsoon, which normally contributes 70-80 per cent of the state’s whole annual rainfall, has upset this yr. The state has obtained just one,231 mm of rainfall in comparison with the anticipated 1,985 mm in the course of the June to September interval, marking a big 38 per cent deficit.

The final time the state witnessed such a dire monsoon season was in 1976 when it recorded a meagre 1,296 mm of rainfall for a similar interval. To keep away from setting a doubtful file, the state now wants 65 mm of rain in simply 4 days. However, climate consultants are usually not optimistic, giving it solely a 50 per cent probability. In the recorded historical past of monsoon, the state obtained the worst southwest monsoon of 1,223 mm in 1,918. Recently, in 2016, when the state declared a drought yr, the southwest monsoon season gave 1,352 mm of rainfall. “The state was anticipated to get an above-normal monsoon this yr.

Cyclone Biparjoy and typhoons resulted in a weak monsoon at the start of the season in June. The delay in activation of optimistic Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has additionally affected the monsoon severely,” stated Rajeevan Erikkulam, a meteorologist with the Kerala State Disaster Management Authority. 

While September’s improved rainfall has mitigated the deficit from an alarming -50 per cent in August, considerations loom over the emergence of El Niño. This local weather phenomenon, characterised by periodic warming of sea floor temperatures within the equatorial Pacific Ocean, has the potential to additional disrupt the monsoon.  A repetition of 2016 can be much more distressing for the state. “Like 2023, 2015-16 was also characterised by the influence of El Nino. The climate phenomenon impacted the northeast monsoon in 2016. There was a deficit of over 60 per cent that year,” stated Rajeevan.

He stated the Positive IOD is anticipated to counterbalance the influence of El Nino. According to him, the early climate fashions recommend an above-normal rainfall in the course of the northeast monsoon season ranging from October until December. India Meteorological Department (IMD) is anticipated to launch the official forecast for the season by the top of September.

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: As the monsoon season nears its finish, Kerala is on the point of experiencing the most- poor wet season in 100 years. The sometimes dependable southwest monsoon, which normally contributes 70-80 per cent of the state’s whole annual rainfall, has upset this yr. The state has obtained just one,231 mm of rainfall in comparison with the anticipated 1,985 mm in the course of the June to September interval, marking a big 38 per cent deficit.

The final time the state witnessed such a dire monsoon season was in 1976 when it recorded a meagre 1,296 mm of rainfall for a similar interval. To keep away from setting a doubtful file, the state now wants 65 mm of rain in simply 4 days. However, climate consultants are usually not optimistic, giving it solely a 50 per cent probability. In the recorded historical past of monsoon, the state obtained the worst southwest monsoon of 1,223 mm in 1,918. Recently, in 2016, when the state declared a drought yr, the southwest monsoon season gave 1,352 mm of rainfall. “The state was anticipated to get an above-normal monsoon this yr.

Cyclone Biparjoy and typhoons resulted in a weak monsoon at the start of the season in June. The delay in activation of optimistic Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has additionally affected the monsoon severely,” stated Rajeevan Erikkulam, a meteorologist with the Kerala State Disaster Management Authority. googletag.cmd.push(perform() googletag.show(‘div-gpt-ad-8052921-2’); );

While September’s improved rainfall has mitigated the deficit from an alarming -50 per cent in August, considerations loom over the emergence of El Niño. This local weather phenomenon, characterised by periodic warming of sea floor temperatures within the equatorial Pacific Ocean, has the potential to additional disrupt the monsoon.  A repetition of 2016 can be much more distressing for the state. “Like 2023, 2015-16 was also characterised by the influence of El Nino. The climate phenomenon impacted the northeast monsoon in 2016. There was a deficit of over 60 per cent that year,” stated Rajeevan.

He stated the Positive IOD is anticipated to counterbalance the influence of El Nino. According to him, the early climate fashions recommend an above-normal rainfall in the course of the northeast monsoon season ranging from October until December. India Meteorological Department (IMD) is anticipated to launch the official forecast for the season by the top of September.