Massive shift of Nair, Ezhava vote base fuels saffron surge in Kerala

By Express News Service
KOCHI: The leap in BJP’s vote share within the state from 6% in the course of the 2011 meeting elections to fifteen% in 2016 was largely as a result of shifting of Nair and Ezhava votes, recommend election analyses accomplished by Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) and the Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR).

National election surveys (NESs) accomplished by CSDS within the state from 2006 to 2019 present that Nair voters migrated to BJP, primarily from UDF.

There was a sudden surge within the Ezhava vote base of BJP in 2016 which might be partly attributed to the work of its ally Bharat Dharma Jana Sena which was established in late 2015.

According to NES, 11% of Nair group members voted for BJP in 2006 and 2011. The determine exhibits a three-fold improve in 2016 when BJP polled 33% of Nair votes.

The achieve of BJP was the lack of UDF whose Nair vote-share dipped from 43% in 2011 to twenty% in 2016.

UDF had polled 38% Nair votes in 2006. Interestingly, LDF gained marginally amongst Nair voters final time as its vote share was 45% in 2016 towards 44% in 2011.

“One of the reasons for the shift of upper class Hindu voters to BJP is the Modi factor. In 2014, there was a whirlwind campaign nationally launching Narendra Modi as PM. It had a ripple effect in Kerala too,” stated political scientist Okay M Sajad Ibrahim who was the principal investigator of CSDS’s NES in Kerala.

“During the 2011 government, there were many controversies like fifth minister for Muslim League and the alleged axis of Oommen Chandy, K M Mani and P K Kunhalikutty controlling the state’s administration. That too seemed to have contributed to the shift of Hindu votes,” he stated.

The shift of Nair votes was extra seen and dominant in 2019 Lok Sabha elections when the Sabarimala challenge was the foremost ballot plank.

BJP polled 43% of Nair votes within the elections, finds NES, whereas UDF’s share was 35%, barely increased than the 34% it polled within the 2014 LS elections.

The actual loss was that of LDF’s because it might ballot solely 22% of Nair votes towards 30% in 2014.

Almost related is the case with the Ezhava voter. BJP’s vote share amongst Ezhava group was 6% in 2006 and seven% in 2011.

However, it touched 17% in 2016, finds NES. The loss right here was that of LDF. Ezhava group members have been a conventional votebank of LDF which obtained 64% and 65% of votes of the group in 2006 and 2011, respectively. 

However, the Ezhava vote share of LDF sharply decreased to 49% in 2016.

“The alleged ‘minority appeasement’ of UDF was a rallying point for BJP, which tried to consolidate Hindu votes by combining the Nair, Ezhava, Brahmin and SC electorate. BJP is allied with BDJS, a party formed in late 2015 by the Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana (SNDP) Yogam, an Ezhava organization,” notes the ‘Analysis of the Kerala Assembly Election 2016’ by CPPR. 

The CPPR examine additionally finds that arguments corresponding to Hindu group is ignored by mainstream political events and that having governments with related ideologies within the state and Centre is good for Kerala’s development prompted many Hindus to vote for NDA in 2016.