Kerala Assembly elections 2021: Who has the sting?

By Express News Service
As Kerala heads to polls on April 6 to pick out a govt, TNIE begins its complete protection of the elections.

Will Kerala, which is understood to alternate between LDF and UDF, spring a shock? Will BJP strengthen its place? We begin with a SWOT evaluation of the three fronts.

UDF

STRENGTHS

Trio is united 

The triumvirate of Oommen Chandy, Ramesh Chennithala and Mullappally Ramachandran is conserving apart its variations to dislodge the Pinarayi-led LDF authorities.

Rahul issue  

If Congress chief Rahul Gandhi campaigns extensively in Kerala, UDF could have an edge. A tour by Rahul with sister Priyanka Gandhi would assist UDF swing votes in its favour.

Return of Kunhalikutty  

The re-entry of P Okay Kunhalikutty, IUML nationwide normal secretary, into state politics has strengthened UDF

Chandy helming marketing campaign 

Bringing again well-liked chief Oommen Chandy to go the marketing campaign panel has given a lift to Congress staff.

WEAKNESS

Candidate choice

Selection of candidates alongside ‘A’, ‘I’ group affiliations and the revolt that follows. 

Jose Mani switching camp

Jose Okay Mani becoming a member of LDF is predicted to slice away a portion of UDF’s conventional vote base in central Kerala.

Christian-Muslim pressure 

Unrest between Muslim and the Christian communities, two main vote banks of UDF, after IUML opposed 10% quota for economically weaker sections amongst ahead castes.

Church’s concern of Muslim domination 

The Church fears UDF’s return will imply Muslims occupying distinguished roles with IUML cornering key portfolios, together with training, the place the Church has stakes. It has additionally aired its issues of ‘Love jihad’ and is sad with IUML chief Panakkad Sadik Ali Shihab Thangal’s assertion hailing the reconversion of Istanbul’s Hagia Sophia right into a mosque.

OPPORTUNITIES

Split in LDF

Split in LDF allies — Mani C Kappan from NCP, JSS led by A N Rajan Babu and JD(S) led by normal secretary George Thomas – and their entry into UDF has given it momentum.

Backdoor appointments and PSC rank-holders’ stir

Government’s failure to settle the strike by PSC rank-holders and the row over backdoor appointments and nepotism have helped UDF.

Fishing deal

The deep-sea fishing deal signed by the federal government with US-based EMCC has helped UDF acquire assist of fishers.

Gold smuggling, LIFE mission: 

The gold smuggling and LIFE Mission rip-off will help UDF drive house its expenses that the LDF authorities isn’t clear.

THREATS

Rebels

The greatest menace confronted by UDF, particularly Congress is the candidates choice. The get together needs to be very cautious in deciding on candidates.

LDF’s free meals kits

The Pinarayi authorities’s transfer to distribute free meals kits, which benefitted 88 lakh  households, is cited as a significant component in serving to LDF register win in native physique polls. To counter this, UDF has promised to introduce NYAY scheme, whereby poor households will obtain Rs 6,000 monthly.

Palarivattom flyover

If UDF retains V Okay Ebrahim Kunju in Kalamassery, LDF will use it to assault the entrance throughout campaigning citing the Palarivattom flyover rip-off.

Veterans who won’t transfer away

The outdated guard in Congress, together with Okay C Joseph (74), P J Kurien (79) and P C Chacko (74), nonetheless wish to contest, blocking the way in which for younger and new faces.

LDF

STRENGTHS

Pinarayi Vijayan

Unified management in entrance and the get together. No factional feuds.

Development 

Major developmental and infrastructure initiatives along with welfare measures like free meals kits.

New allies 

Entry of ex-UDF allies — KC(M) led by Jose Okay Mani and LJD. 

Local physique momentum

The normal pro-Left wave within the native physique elections. 

WEAKNESS

Weak defence

Failure to successfully counter campaigns round two latest controversies. 

No VS

V S Achuthanandan, the most important crowd-puller and hottest campaigner of LDF within the final three meeting elections, is conserving away this time.

OPPORTUNITIES

Favourable sentiment

Strong public sentiment that the Left could get continuity in workplace. Poll surveys additionally predict the identical.

Early talks 

Early seat-sharing inside the entrance with out main disputes. Young and higher candidates.

Jose Okay Mani

Making in-roads into Christian vote base in central Travancore with Jose Okay Mani’s entry. 

THREATS

Revoking instances

Possible constructive response from varied communities after withdrawal of instances associated to Sabarimala and anti-CAA protests. 

Controversies

Two main controversies that cropped up within the closing lap — Regularising momentary employees and the deep-sea fishing deal.

Community bother

Strong opposition from NSS and anti-Left sentiment amongst sure sections submit failure to type out Orthodox-Jacobite situation.

Mani C Kappan

Mani switching allegiance to UDF can show expensive for LDF in central Travancore.

THIRD FRONT

STRENGTHS

Dedicated cadre: A devoted cadre and grassroots-level election work involving RSS males

Money: Huge funding for marketing campaign, Central authorities’s agency backing

Strategy:  Gaining the boldness of varied Church teams by means of PM-level talks 

New entrants: Roping in Jacob Thomas, E Sreedharan and different distinguished personalities 

WEAKNESS

Internal tussle: Factional feud in state unit that always wants the nationwide management’s intervention 

Sobha issue:  BJP State VP Sobha Surendran and her supporters but to be taken into confidence

Chief bother: Opposition inside get together in direction of Okay Surendran’s model of functioning

Limited avenues: Limited seats within the state the place BJP can win by itself

OPPORTUNITIES

Mobilisation:  Prospects of mobilising massive chunk of anti-LDF votes to its benefit 

Love jihad: Gaining confidence of Christian voters by taking a strident stance in opposition to ‘Love jihad’

Decider: Playing essential function in deciding winner in not less than 15 seats

Share: Has likelihood to extend vote share significantly

THREATS

Fuel: Rising gasoline and cooking gasoline costs could hamper get together’s probabilities

Sabarimala: UDF is profiting from Sabarimala issue because it did in 2019        Minority votes: Large-scale consolidation of minority votes .

Hindutva: Alienating secular voters by excessively whipping up Hindutva