Shivshankar Menon: ‘Post-Covid, everyone will be diminished. We have to handle our problems competently… not do image management’

Shivshankar Menon says India can’t lay declare to “vishwa guru” standing but; explains that vis-à-vis China, the govt. shouldn’t be “defending a narrative”, however “actual position on the ground”; and believes that the nation can’t rely solely on atmanirbharta. The session was moderated by Dy Chief of Bureau Shubhajit Roy.
SHUBHAJIT ROY: What made you write India and Asian Geopolitics: The Past, Present?
I’m satisfied that India does greatest when she is most engaged and linked with the surface world. Unfortunately, what I see occurring in the previous few years is that we’re turning inwards — a kind of closing of the Indian thoughts, reducing off from the surface world. We are very satisfied that we’re distinctive, we’re distinctive, which we is likely to be, however that doesn’t imply that we don’t want the world. So (the ebook) is mostly a plea for engagement with the remainder of the world, notably with our residence, Asia.
SHUBHAJIT ROY: Do you assume the realities of India is commensurate with the ‘vishwa guru’ picture that the federal government is making an attempt to challenge?
I don’t assume we’re proper but to say to be vishwa guru. We are usually not an amazing generator of data or nice innovators. We are literally an importer of data, of know-how, of concepts. Of course, this may change however not at present. Secondly, being vishwa guru doesn’t essentially imply that Indians lead higher, extra affluent, safer, safe lives, which is our elementary job, and to not change the world, get revenge, acquire standing or to get different folks to say how nice we’re. What’s occurred in the previous few years is that international coverage is getting used for home political functions… It is a part of home picture projection and is used for these functions… All this projection of India being an amazing rising energy, a world energy and so forth is actually us. The world is rather more reasonable. The world measures your materials energy, onerous energy, your financial system, your navy energy, and your capacity to run your personal affairs properly. Then they take a look at the softer dimensions… Today, I’m afraid that what’s occurred lately has hit our mushy energy as properly…
SHUBHAJIT ROY: So, what sort of energy is India proper now?
I believe India is a distinct sort of energy. What India has all the time understood is that we’re nonetheless a creating nation and we’ve got a protracted solution to go. But, we’ve got weight, we’ve got affect and we had the brains to make use of different folks’s political weight — a type of political jujutsu. In 2008, after we didn’t get clearance from the NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group), we have been capable of work with sufficient pals and with the only superpower of the day to get that. Similarly, when Bangladesh (was carved out) in 1971, and the political geography of the subcontinent modified, it was in opposition to the opposition of our largest neighbour… We nonetheless used the Cold War… The assist that we received from the Soviet Union to create sufficient area to get our means… That was an achievement… So there’s a massive factor of ability right here which includes understanding the state of affairs, utilizing it to attain Indian pursuits…
SHUBHAJIT ROY: From 2014 to now, what has modified about China?
It’s clear that Chinese behaviour has turn out to be extra assertive. I wouldn’t date it solely to Xi Jinping and 2012, I’d truly take it again to 2008, when after the worldwide monetary disaster China in all probability felt her second had come… I see rather more Chinese assertive behaviour throughout the board for 2 causes. One is that they see a possibility… But, they could even be seeing a closing window, that it is a short-term second of strategic alternative… One report final 12 months for the primary time mentioned that China’s inhabitants has truly diminished. By 2040, most projections say that China may have the age construction that Japan has at present. Secondly, their financial system is reverting to imply. Like all the opposite miracle Asian economies, there isn’t a means that you may maintain 10% development past 30-35 years. For the previous few years, they’ve been displaying 6% (development), whereas some outdoors observers assume it’s as little as 2%…
SHUBHAJIT ROY: How do you see our response to China?
You see it depends upon what your purpose is… In 2017, in Doklam, we had a face-off for 72 days over a territory, which we predict is Bhutanese and the Chinese say is theirs. After 72 days, we negotiated a withdrawal. They vacated the spot and so did we. But we then declared victory. We mentioned we confronted them down… Then, what did the Chinese do? They got here again and occupied the remainder of the plateau… Once you’re trapped into this narrative of I gained, then they will play that to create outcomes. That is the danger that we face.
Today, as an example, we’ve got an issue because the Chinese change the established order alongside the LAC within the western sector at a number of spots. We are speaking of disengagement, not of restoring the established order. But on the identical time, the preliminary tendency was to say nothing has occurred. If nothing has occurred, what are you discussing? And the Chinese then can be justified in saying what are you asking us to withdraw from?… My recommendation can be, it’s greatest to be sincere with your personal folks proper from the beginning. Otherwise, you get into a really sophisticated internet of making an attempt to clarify… Unfortunately, I don’t count on transparency from the Chinese. They have by no means displayed it prior to now and that’s the reason Chinese variations are very seldom believed world wide. In reality, much less and fewer so at present with the wolf-warrior diplomacy. But we’ve got additionally been fairly sparing with the reality, since spring 2020. For me, that’s an issue since you shouldn’t be defending a story, you have to be defending your precise place on the bottom.
KRISHN KAUSHIK: In resolving the present standoff, was India proper in giving up its leverage in Kailash Range for restricted disengagement?
We don’t know what is definitely mentioned within the negotiation, what’s been supplied, what’s not. There’s lots of hypothesis. There are impressed leaks, which make me very nervous… What we did on August 29 onwards was proper, occupying the heights, and it paid its dividends within the sense that no less than the state of affairs round Pangong Tso is comparatively again to what it was earlier than.
KRISHN KAUSHIK: The authorities has been insisting that since 2013 we’ve got not been capable of strategy our patrolling limits…
The Indian Army is aware of what they’re doing on the border… SSN (Sub-sector North), Depsang have been delicate areas for a very long time. We have identified about it, we all know the issue. The final time we went to our patrol factors was in January 2020. Now either side are stopping the opposite from doing what they used to do. So maybe the established order has been modified for each of us and that’s the reason it’s important to be clear about what occurs on the bottom… Don’t make excuses saying we haven’t been (to our patrolling factors) since 2013, which isn’t true. Don’t discovered your stance on a lie. Say there’s a brand new establishment that’s been created and it’s acceptable to us and that we don’t assume it hurts our curiosity. Accept it and transfer on. But to do that (to say that we’ve got not been to our patrolling factors since 2013) is a type of appeasement. Once you appease, you solely whet their urge for food. They then really feel that they will try to do that elsewhere. Our job now could be to revive deterrence on that line which has damaged down, as a result of if it hadn’t been damaged down, they (China) wouldn’t have tried to alter the established order in so many spots on the identical time and on such a scale.
ANANT GOENKA: Given Jack Ma’s run-in with Chinese regulators, ought to Indian entrepreneurs be cautious about taking funding from China or from Chinese firms?
Money is fungible. If you are taking the cash and provides them energy in your board administration and many others, then that may be a entire totally different calculus. But if it’s simply funding for the sake of funding, take their cash, construct your industries and make it your personal… It depends upon the way you construction the offers. I believe the figures that the Chinese simply put out for the primary quarter of this 12 months present a document improve of 42% in Indian-China commerce, over the identical interval final 12 months… This can’t simply be push from the Chinese facet, it’s also pull on our facet… I believe we’ve got to simply accept that a few of that is in our curiosity additionally. After all, low cost Chinese items are good for the Indian client as properly. We want to take a look at how we are able to construct this right into a relationship the place the dependencies are minimised and the profit is maximised. That’s doable however it can take a good quantity of fine-tuning work.
ANANT GOENKA: Suppose there’s Chinese funding in Ola, which has a really formidable plan of dominating the electrical car sector. Now if a Chinese firm received even a 25% stake in it, a good quantity of management is available in. Is it then reasonable to count on that it’s simply cash given for return of funding?
Therefore, I believe what you’ll do is you’ll lay down limits on how a lot controlling curiosity they get. Chinese cash is all internationally. It’s extra a query of how do you construction this stuff to just be sure you retain management, that you’re not creating dependencies which may later harm you. Frankly, you possibly can’t label any funding as a nationality anymore.
ANANT GOENKA: What do you consider Pakistan’s supply to export oxygen to India?
The greatest solution to play this stuff is in a fully straight means. Act as if it’s a real supply, say thanks and take it. But don’t out of the blue say every little thing has modified, our relationship is great, all of us begin talking Punjabi… No, no.
P VAIDYANATHAN IYER: Trade deficits with China have elevated over a time period. Is commerce an space the place we’re taking a look at creating interdependencies with China? Also, how actual is the paranoia about Chi- nese funding?
We used to run a surplus (commerce) with China… It was solely round 2004-2005, that the deficit actually began rising, and after that it ballooned… What has occurred in the previous few years is that we’ve got adopted a kind of passive-aggressive international financial coverage… We walked out of RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) after eight years of negotiation. We are actually the one main financial system which isn’t a part of any regional buying and selling association. We have been elevating tariffs for the final 4 years. So we are literally turning inwards. Yet, 40% of our GDP comes from the exterior sector. Can we do with out the world? Can we solely depend on atmanirbharta? We can’t. Nearly 80% of our imports are upkeep imports — fertilizer, power. We are usually not going to outlive with out the world. And how are you going to pay for this in case you are not exporting? The world financial system is far slower, it’s fragmented, however it’s nonetheless globalised. It is fragmented into very massive buying and selling blocs. Asia is one, the place we’re outdoors each the CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership) and RCEP… If you select to chop your self off from the remaining, for me it represents an actual danger of a way more impoverished future for India, and that’s the argument I make within the ebook. You must get on the market and get engaged. Yes, it’s a more durable world. But as a result of it’s a more durable world, it’s important to do extra. You ought to do rather more within the subcontinent, rather more within the Indian Ocean area. You could make your self a supply of prosperity to your smaller neighbours… You account for about 8% of the world’s GDP, you do have sure weight and affect. You are usually not leveraging that to truly additional your financial affect whereas the Chinese are literally institutionalising their affect by means of AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank) and many others. That is the distinction. There are a thousand methods of doing it, however for me the largest fear is that we are literally heading in the wrong way.
… Part of the issue between India and China is that we every challenge on the opposite, and count on the opposite one to behave as we might in these circumstances. And we don’t. We don’t perceive one another, we don’t even examine one another correctly… In 1988, after we did modus vivendi and principally agreed to not hassle one another, each economies have been roughly the identical measurement and at the same stage technologically. In reality, we have been extra built-in into the world financial system than they have been. But now, they’re greater than 4 instances larger than us by way of financial system and you’ll see the degrees of integration and the affect that they train on the planet. The consequence is mostly a super sense of envy in India. Numerous the reactions, like throwing Chinese TVs out of the window, how and whom does it assist? You simply misplaced a TV, that’s all. There is not any rational dialogue of this stuff and it’s not even doable… That for me is tragic.

SHUBHAJIT ROY: Was strolling out of RCEP a mistake?
Yes, I believe so. You had eight years to barter what you wished. Then you will have a 20-year adjustment interval in RCEP for it to truly start absolutely. So what are you saying once you stroll away? You are saying I’m not aggressive at present and I don’t assume I might be aggressive in 20 years. That’s what you’re saying to the remainder of the world. You have opted out. I’m positive you made your adversaries glad.
NIRUPAMA SUBRAMANIAN: Does India’s closeness with the US or the Quad (Quadrilateral Dialogue) partnership sq. with our need for strategic autonomy?
I don’t assume strategic autonomy means I gained’t work with different folks… I believe strategic autonomy implies that you make up your personal thoughts. Secondly, you’re solely helpful to different folks, in case you are keen to truly work with them. You want the world that can assist you with points similar to maritime safety… 93% of your commerce goes by sea, and 38% of it by means of South China Sea. Are you going to defend it in every single place? You depend on worldwide norms, different companions.
NIRUPAMA SUBRAMANIAN: In case of an all-out hostility with China, what can we count on from the Quad?
Nobody else goes to battle for you. And you don’t need anyone else to battle for you both. Even in 1962, no one did… Secondly, intelligence is one thing the place your pals can assist you. As your pursuits develop, as you turn out to be extra entangled with the world, you’re additionally extra depending on it. China is as depending on the world as you’re; legal guidelines of politics apply to them too.
AAKASH JOSHI: To what extent do you assume home political selections have an effect on India’s mushy energy overseas?
Today, India as a mannequin within the subcontinent might be much less so than earlier than for 2 or three causes. One is that the subcontinent consists of outdated nations however new states. They are all build up their nationalism and so forth and within the final 30 or 40 years they really feel much less threatened. But when Sri Lanka was making an attempt to barter with Tamils in Jaffna, the place did the Sri Lankan authorities search for instance? Indian federalism. Why is the Nepali Congress known as the Congress? Where do they arrive after they must run away from the monarchy? Those political hyperlinks at a human stage have atrophied, partly on our facet as we turn out to be extra insular, but in addition of their case, as they’ve developed in their very own means. So it’s not solely what we’ve got finished in the previous few years internally, but in addition concerning the sharper nationalist rhetoric that we are actually utilizing in projecting ourselves.
But the largest shift that has come is that (the subcontinent) was principally a sideshow through the Cold War… But at present all of the stress and flashpoints are within the Asia Pacific… Today, you will have a stage of outdoor curiosity within the subcontinent which didn’t exist earlier than. And they are going to use the leverage this offers them, simply as you (India) used the leverage the Cold War gave you between the US and the Soviets. They will use your tensions with China. So it’s a way more sophisticated state of affairs at present than earlier than.

LIZ MATHEW: What can be India’s place in a brand new post-Covid world?
…The means we deal with the second wave goes to have an effect on our picture. But principally, in the event you take a look at the geopolitics of it, Covid has accelerated current traits reasonably than shift them… We are nonetheless in the course of this disaster, and I’m very reluctant to say that on the finish of this disaster, India goes to come back out higher or worse than different folks. We will come out diminished. And sadly, everyone goes to come back out diminished. And in a a lot slower world financial system, the place everyone is doing a lot worse, it’s going to be a a lot tougher world as a result of there might be a pure tendency to… be rather more protectionist. You are getting into a world which is rather more Hobbesian because it have been… The greatest means is to deal with our issues competently, that would be the starting (of restoration). But if you’ll do picture administration, I’m sorry.
RAVISH TIWARI: Does the worldwide neighborhood perceive the world order that China is making an attempt to style?
…My personal sense is that China is aware of it’s the best beneficiary of the current order… What they’re saying is that China is able to take centre stage. She (China) is just not saying let’s construct a distinct order however she defines the present order otherwise… She is speaking a couple of division of the world between the nice powers. And she retains saying something outdoors that’s harmful. Now, what does that suggest? To me, it implies that she is open to a negotiation. She desires to enhance the current order however she’s a beneficiary of it. So she doesn’t need to destroy it… China has by no means taken the obligations that the US did after World War-II… While she’s an financial superpower, she’s not but a political or navy superpower.
SHUBHAJIT ROY: Do you assume back-channel talks between India and Pakistan will work?
Back channels are helpful and have labored… But they’ve failed too… as a result of home politics in each nations doesn’t assist it. Today, we’re in a distinct state of affairs the place it appears that evidently those that have energy in each international locations have an curiosity in a managed stage of hostility. They don’t need it to exit of hand as neither can danger a defeat… It appears to serve home political functions on either side to have some hostility.
SHUBHAJIT ROY: Your prognosis within the ebook doesn’t paint a really glad image about the place India is headed.
I’m optimistic about India. India is larger than any politician, authorities or bureaucrat. I see onerous instances forward and rather a lot depends upon what we predict and what we do.