How Covid graph stored rising in Punjab earlier than registering steady dip — solely to rise once more

FROM THE first Covid case recorded on March 9, 2020, within the state, Punjab noticed a steady enhance in circumstances, deaths. The graph rose slowly between October 2020 and January 2021, however has once more seen an upward trajectory from January-end onwards.
The rise
The trigger for concern is the growing variety of circumstances in March — 23,242 circumstances have been reported between March 1 and March 18 — with 372 deaths throughout the identical interval, whereas in all of February, 8,900 new circumstances had been reported alongwith 217 deaths. In January, 6,754 new circumstances had been added to the case tally, with 274 new deaths.
On March 18 itself, a complete of two,387 circumstances have been reported with 32 deaths. This took the whole state tally to 2,05,418 and general toll to six,204. The case fatality fee (CFR) of the state stands at 3.02 per cent, which is highest within the nation.
A research of case counts each month-end exhibits that on March 31 final yr, 41 circumstances have been recorded, of which 4 sufferers died, and thus CFR was excessive at 9.75 per cent. The first Covid demise was recorded in Punjab on March 19 final yr, a Nawashahr-based senior citizen who had returned from Italy. The variety of sufferers grew to 480 by April 30 in Punjab, with deaths growing to 10. With this, the CFR diminished to 2.08 per cent. By May 31, this quantity grew to 2,263 with 45 deaths, although CFR had fallen to 1.98 per centby May 31 though variety of deaths had grown by 350 per cent from April 30 to May 31.
 
With 1,783 new circumstances testing optimistic in a month, this share enhance was 371.4 per cent. From April-end until the primary week of May, Punjab residents caught in Nanded and completely different components of Rajasthan had come again. Various them had examined optimistic. The variety of sufferers by June 30 had elevated to five,568 and the variety of deaths too elevated to 144 with CFR once more rising to 2.5 per cent whereas 3,305 new circumstances together with 99 deaths had been reported from May 31 to June 30.

A surge in circumstances began from June-end onwards. Cases by July-end elevated to 16,119, with 10,551 new circumstances and 242 new deaths being recorded between June 30 and July 31. The numbers rose additional when the figures by August 31 have been 53,992 sufferers and 1,453 deaths. The CFR was 2.69 per cent on the time. In this era (July 31 – August 31), 37,873 new circumstances together with 1,067 Covid deaths had been reported.
By August finish, stage 3 beds in ICUs have been full to capability in Ludhiana whereas in lots of different districts, there have been only some beds left. Various sufferers needed to battle laborious to get beds in September first week when lastly, extra non-public hospitals have been added to the listing of offering essential care to sick sufferers. The gaps in medical services have been highlighted when Punjab Health Minister Balbir Singh Sidhu himself had admitted that the majority civil hospitals didn’t have ICU services in Punjab and therefore for essential care, they have been largely depending on non-public medical schools and hospitals and three authorities schools of Punjab.
By September 30, the circumstances had grown to 1,13,886 with whole deaths at 3,406, CFR was 2.99 per cent at the moment. The most circumstances have been added between August 31 and September 30 time — 59,894 with 1,953 deaths.
The dip
The circumstances began lowering after that. Only 19,772 new circumstances together with 797 deaths have been reported between September 30 and October 31. The share enhance of circumstances, which was 110.9 per cent between August 31 and September 30, fell to solely 17.3 per cent between September 30 and October 31. While share enhance in deaths was 134.4 per cent between August 31 and September 30, it fell sharply to solely 23.39 per cent from September 30 to October 31. However, excessive CFR was an issue which elevated to three.14 per cent by October 31, final yr.
Furthermore, between October 31 and November 30, 18,433 new circumstances have been added with 604 deaths. Between November 30 and December 31, 14,431 new circumstances have been added with 534 deaths. Another 6,754 new circumstances have been added between December 31 and January 31 with 274 deaths. The general Covid depend turned 1,73,276 with deaths at 5,615 by January 31.

The second wave
However, within the subsequent 28 days, a complete of 8,900 new circumstances have been reported with 217 deaths, thus taking the whole variety of circumstances and deaths to 1,82,176 and 5,832 respectively by February 28.The scenario turned alarming in March, when in 18 days (until March 18), 23,260 new circumstances have been reported with 372 deaths.