Gujarat polls: Can BJP maintain the fort?
10 min readBJP state president C.R. Patil is bold. He is on a mission to surpass the Congress’s 1985 document, when the occasion underneath Madhavsinh Solanki gained 149 out of 182 seats. No occasion has touched this magic quantity since—not even underneath the just about decade and a half of Narendra Modi’s rule as chief minister. But the BJP did obtain its highest tally to this point underneath Modi—127 seats in 2002. For Patil and the BJP, Gujarat is a must-win battle because the PM’s fame is at stake. Patil is engaged on all fronts to make sure success, even keen to deviate from his earlier stand that no one from the Congress can be inducted within the BJP. Among these he gained over from the Congress is Jayraj Singh Parmar, a former spokesperson for the occasion, who joined the BJP in February and might affect 4-5 meeting constituencies in Mehsana district of north Gujarat. Many extra defectors are more likely to be welcomed.
Graphics: Tanmoy Chakraborty
Apart from these strikes, Patil is counting on the BJP’s sturdy organisational community to beat anti-incumbency. Pradeepsinh Vaghela, the 41-year-old BJP basic secretary, retains tabs on the help base, sitting within the occasion headquarters in Gandhinagar. He says the ‘panna pramukh (page committee)’ system has been a sturdy mechanism to consolidate supporters. Each web page of the voters’ listing has 30 names, and a committee of 5 occasion staff is meant to watch them. “We have a target of appointing 71 lakh page committee members. At present, we have 62 lakh,” says Vaghela, a firebrand subsequent era chief. “We will have 35 lakh active workers encouraging voters to vote for BJP.” The occasion has additionally made a listing of ‘kriyasheel karyakarta (active workers)’—those that have added a minimum of 100 new members—and given them good ID playing cards in order that the leaders might be instantly up to date once they add extra members.
Caste dynamics additionally favour the BJP. While the prime minister stays its largest magnet for all communities, the occasion additionally has a battery of leaders from each sections of the Patidar group—Kadva Patels and Leuva Patels. While CM Bhupendra Patel is a Kadva Patel, Union well being minister Mansukh Mandaviya is a Leuva Patel. The occasion additionally has a sizeable presence among the many OBCs (different backward courses)—Kolis and Thakors—whereas upper-caste Hindus have been loyal BJP voters for greater than three many years.
To dodge anti-incumbency, the BJP had changed your complete cabinet underneath Vijay Rupani with new ministers led by Bhupendra Patel in September 2021. Now, the federal government is trying to win over voters with a thrust on the Mukhyamantri Amrutum Yojana, its mass medical insurance scheme, and by offering tapped water to each family. It expects to realize the goal of 100 per cent tapped water provide by September. “We have completed 93 per cent work. The rest will be done soon,” says a senior official from the CM’s workplace.
However, the CM’s low public profile and rising inflation could hamper the BJP’s prospects. “Even after eight months, many people do not know who the CM is,” says a senior BJP chief. “Humble and modest, he likes to stay away from the public glare, but the time has come to be vocal.”
Meanwhile, rising costs of gasoline, fuel and electrical energy have shaken the center class, the BJP’s core voter base. Ahmedabad resident Mitul Patel complains that his electrical energy invoice for 2 months was a whopping Rs 18,000. “I use two air conditioners in my house, but this power bill is unprecedented,” he says. The costs of piped fuel and CNG, too, have gone up. “Commuters have started complaining as we had to hike the fare for shared rickshaws from Rs 15 to Rs 25,” says Shailesh Prajapati, an autorickshaw driver.
AAP’s rise could have enlivened Gujarat’s political environment, however it has no one to swing votes of any caste group
Many within the BJP imagine that Saurashtra-Kutch is the occasion’s Achilles’ heel. In 2017, the Patidar agitation broken its prospects on this area, the place it gained simply 23 of 54 seats. With Leuva Patels in a majority right here, the BJP is making an attempt to induct influential group chief Naresh Patel to woo them. “His clout will remain until the polls at least,” says a BJP chief. “Even if people later start looking at him as a politician and not a social worker, he would have served our purpose.” The BJP would possibly provide him the put up of deputy CM.
Interestingly, leaders who broke away from the BJP ended up serving to the occasion’s trigger in three successive elections—2007, 2012 and 2017—by making certain anti-BJP votes didn’t go to its essential rival. In 2007, Gordhan Zadafia, a minister in then CM Modi’s cabinet, acquired a lot of the anti-BJP votes for his Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP) as a substitute of the Congress getting them. Former CMs Keshubhai Patel (GPP) and Shankersinh Vaghela (Jan Vikalp Morcha) did the trick for the BJP in 2012 and 2017, respectively. In 2017, NOTA votes exceeded the successful margin in some seats. Had the 551,615 NOTA voters pressed the button for the Congress as a substitute, the BJP would have been sitting within the Opposition.
The Congress Offensive
The temper at Rajiv Gandhi Bhavan, the Congress headquarters in Ahmedabad, was upbeat on April 6. Party staff regarded completely satisfied after coming back from Sabarmati Ashram, the place that they had launched the ‘Azadi Gaurav Yatra’. Aimed at mobilising Congress staff of Gujarat and Rajasthan, the yatra will cowl 4 districts of north Gujarat—Ahmedabad, Gandhinagar, Mehsana and Banaskantha—earlier than turning in direction of Delhi, the place it is going to culminate on June 2.
The yatra was initiated after the state Congress appointed 76 basic secretaries, the very best quantity to this point, to tackle the BJP. But whilst the employees reached the occasion workplace on April 6, information filtered in that round 400 Congress staff from Banaskantha had joined the BJP earlier within the day. “The BJP is poaching Congress workers because, contrary to the perception, that it is inactive, our party is alive in the state. We have a team. There is strong anti-incumbency and the government is corrupt,” claims Manish Doshi, chief spokesperson of the Congress.
While addressing occasion staff in March, former occasion president Rahul Gandhi had insisted on making pragmatic guarantees. “We have a bright future in Gujarat. Don’t promise people the moon if you can’t get them the moon,” he suggested. He additionally requested them to place their coronary heart into the combat in opposition to the BJP. “You can’t win if you are mentally defeated,” he’s reported to have mentioned.
Acting on his recommendation, the Congress is specializing in the tribal areas, which it believes could possibly be a game-changer this time. Anant Patel, its MLA from Vansda, mobilised tribals in opposition to the Centre’s venture to hyperlink the Par, Tapi and Narmada rivers. Union finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman had introduced the Par-Tapi-Narmada linking venture in her funds speech in February. The venture was to switch river water from the excess areas of the Western Ghats to the deficit areas of Saurashtra and Kutch. The Par originates from Nashik in Maharashtra and flows by means of Valsad, Gujarat; the Tapi originates within the Satpura vary and runs by means of Maharashtra and Surat; the Narmada originates in MP and flows by means of Maharashtra and Gujarat’s Bharuch and Narmada districts.
Tapping into the tribals’ fears that the river-linking venture will displace them, Anant Patel led protests in a number of locations in east Gujarat. On April 5, state BJP president Patil introduced that the Centre has determined to stall the venture within the absence of consent from the governments of Gujarat and Maharashtra. This has come as a shot within the arm for the Congress.
Both BJP and Congress are attempting to induct Naresh Patel, a Leuva Patel group chief; (Photo: Nandan Dave)
Strong help from its core voters—Muslims and tribals—has been the Congress’s power, and the occasion has been alleging that the BJP has invited the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) to Gujarat to chop into that base. According to political observer Shirish Kashikar, Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM (All-India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen) is one other headache for the Congress because it has been weaning away its conventional Muslim votes.
A much bigger downside, nonetheless, is the shortage of a dynamic and inclusive chief. State president Jagdish Thakor is named an excellent organiser, however lacks huge acceptability. The working president Hardik Patel—the face of the Patidar reservation agitation—appears to have misplaced his enchantment after becoming a member of the Congress in 2017. “One can be a hero for only one cause. People won’t accept you as a hero for every single cause,” says a senior Congress chief.
The occasion hopes to do higher in Saurashtra and south Gujarat. Like the BJP, the Congress, too, is making an attempt to rope in Naresh Patel. As chairman of the Shri Khodaldham Trust, the largest organisation of Leuva Patels, he has a lot affect over the group in 30-35 meeting constituencies. The belief manages the temple of Goddess Khodiyar, the group’s patron deity, in Rajkot. As the Congress has been unable to draw upper-caste Hindus since 1990, Naresh Patel can be a prize catch. However, a bit within the occasion believes his entry would alienate the OBCs as they don’t get together with the Patidars. They are additionally sceptical on whether or not Hardik, a Kadva Patel, will settle for Naresh.
AAP Makes Inroads
AAP, which has set its sights on Gujarat after its Punjab victory, cashed in on an opportunity to show the chinks within the BJP-ruled state’s training system. It all began with the nationwide BJP social media workforce tweeting a caricature of AAP convenor and Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal, criticising him for his dealing with of protests by schoolteachers within the nationwide capital. On April 6, Gujarat training minister Jitu Vaghani requested those that don’t like the faculties within the state to go to whichever state or nation they like. Delhi training minister Manish Sisodia retaliated the following day, saying the BJP has failed to enhance the training system in Gujarat after 27 years of ruling the state. “People need not leave Gujarat. They will bring AAP to power and a glorious education system like in Delhi will be provided to them,” he tweeted.
The BJP had chosen the unsuitable time to tackle AAP over faculty training. After all, round 600 authorities faculties—every of which had lower than 20 college students on its rolls—have been shut down prior to now 12 months in Gujarat, particularly in tribal areas. The state has additionally seen protests by mother and father in opposition to highschool charges. Clearly, Vaghani had been caught on the unsuitable foot and his occasion’s prime leaders ultimately requested him to chorus from making pointless statements on training. But then the harm had been carried out by then.
As for AAP, its rise appears to have enlivened Gujarat’s political panorama. The occasion accomplished its statewide ‘Tiranga Yatra’ within the first week of April. It organised rallies in every of the 182 meeting constituencies. AAP’s Gujarat president Gopal Italia claims his occasion has a minimum of 100 energetic staff in every constituency. Next in line is ‘Jan Samvad’, the occasion’s mass contact marketing campaign starting on April 15, wherein native leaders will work together with individuals to know their issues.
At a roadside tea stall in Ahmedadangerous, Italia says, “The common people of Gujarat have started identifying with AAP.” Clad in blue denims and white shirt, the 32-year-old legislation graduate and Surat resident used his stopover on the stall (though he arrived in a Land Cruiser) to say, “I am truly an aam aadmi (common man). I can sit anywhere and interact with people.” According to Italia, AAP’s outreach will give attention to training and well being. Alleging that individuals are fed up with the “arrogance” of BJP leaders, he says, “No one listens to their grievances. Anyone can build schools, but this government’s mindset is dangerous. They are corrupting people’s minds.”
While AAP could have among the youngest leaders within the state, none of them is a extensively fashionable face. And it has no one who can swing the votes of any caste group. However, Italia, a Leuva Patel, insists that Patidars, particularly the kids amongst them, aren’t pondering alongside caste strains. “They will support anyone who has a vision for society irrespective of caste,” he says. However, allegations that Italia has made statements mocking Hindu gods could harm the occasion’s probabilities.
Meanwhile, AAP has began a publicity blitz on native TV channels, with Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann showing each half an hour claiming his authorities has ended corruption in per week. Taking a leaf from Punjab, AAP has roped in its grasp strategist Sandeep Pathak, a Rajya Sabha member and former IIT-Delhi professor, to chalk out a plan for Gujarat. Pathak toured Ahmedabad for 2 days and introduced on April 4 that AAP’s inside survey reveals it may win 58 seats within the subsequent election. “People of rural Gujarat are voting for us. The lower and middle class in urban areas too want a change and will vote for us,” he advised reporters.
A supply within the occasion, nonetheless, dismissed the report as exaggerated. “It is a tactic to boost our workers’ morale. As of now, our biggest achievement is our presence in all 182 constituencies,” the supply says. Political observer Kashikar factors out that though AAP has a recognized face in former journalist Isudan Gadhvi, the occasion must strengthen its grassroots-level organisation. “Without it, they can’t go beyond municipality elections,” he says. AAP had didn’t open its account within the 2017 election. This time, it hopes to do significantly better.
