At PM-CMs meet: Surge peak possible mid-May, problem till July, infra gaps in key states

The ongoing Covid surge is anticipated to peak in mid-May, with the day by day depend prone to attain 5 lakh, and should subside by June-July; closely populated states are at “particular risk”; and, well being infrastructure in states just isn’t sufficient sufficient to deal with the “very serious scenario”.
These are the important thing factors flagged throughout a presentation made by NITI Aayog member Dr V Okay Paul, who heads a key Central panel, in the course of the Prime Minister’s assessment assembly with Chief Ministers on Friday, The Sunday Express has learnt.
The presentation additionally notes the assorted measures taken by the Government to “break the chains of transmission”: “revised, liberal” vaccination coverage; enhancing “production and availability” of oxygen; “augmentation of availablity” of remdesivir; and, varied outreach initiatives.

“Team India will fight this second onslaught of Corona and win the war,” it concludes. Yet, a serious portion of the presentation particulars the extent of the disaster, together with the projected variety of instances by April 30 and shortfall in essential gear in surge states (see chart). According to sources, Paul flagged evident gaps within the well being infrastructure of 10 states which have a excessive burden of instances: Maharashtra, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat.
Of these, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Delhi are anticipated to see the most important leap in instances by the top of this month. UP tops the checklist with 1,19,604 projected instances by the month-end, nearly 5 occasions the 20,439 registered on April 15. Delhi might see the day by day depend go as much as 67,134 by the top of this month, nearly 4 occasions of 17,282 registered on April 15.
“No state has adequate infrastructure to deal with the surge in cases. (The) number of deaths may increase due to lack of treatment facilities,” the presentation says.
Warning that the Covid “wave is still rising” and the “peak is away — possibly mid-May”, it estimates that “cases can go upto 5 lakh per day — or even more” within the coming days and “deaths will rise”. The “wave will take time to subside — be ready till June/July,” states the presentation, which has been shared with the states.
It factors out that well being system capacities are “overshooting” with “shortages of oxygen” and “some drugs” – and that final December-end, there have been 81,094 ICU beds within the nation, which might meet the requirement of solely as much as 1.5 lakh instances per day. The “situation will worsen if we delay change in strategy”, it warns. Pointing out that India is “leading (the) proportion in daily new cases and deaths globally”, it notes that the nation has turn into the one nation to document the very best variety of instances — 3.15 lakh — in a single day.
Paul, who heads the Centre’s Empowered Group of Officers on Medical Emergency Management Plan, didn’t reply to cellphone calls and messages from The Indian Express in search of his feedback on the presentation’s contents. But a state official, who attended the Prime Minister’s assembly, confirmed its contents.
The official, from one of many 10 surge states, accepted that there are infrastructure gaps however stated the “biggest problem” is scarcity of oxygen. “Today, the problem is not health infrastructure, it is oxygen. We can ramp up the number of beds if we get oxygen,” the official instructed The Indian Express.
The presentation additionally particulars the vaccination programme and the Government’s efforts to reinforce the provision of liquid medical oxygen and Remdesivir. The availability of oxygen has been elevated by 3,300 metric tonnes per day, it states. “India has 1,172 oxygen tankers (16,732 MT capacity)…efforts to increase to more than 2,000,” it says.

“Guidelines have been formulated on oxygen requirement… Need for further dissemination and implementation of the guidelines at the hospital level,” it says.
On Remdesivir, it states: “With growing demand, production ramp up started in March from a level of 27.44 lakh vials per month towards 74.10 lakh vials per month in May… Supplies are made by manufacturers through distribution channels catering to private hospitals and institutions as well as directly to Government bulk purchases… About 49.07 lakh vials have been delivered across the country” from March 1-22.