Oscars 2022 predictions: Who might be nominated on the 94th Academy Awards?

This 12 months’s Oscar nominations, set to be introduced Tuesday, really feel unusually up for grabs: With the diminished Golden Globes off the air and the Critics Choice Awards pushed again to March due to the omicron variant, no televised awards present has had the possibility to dominate the run-up to those alternatives, and Oscar voters could gravitate towards some stunning picks consequently.
At least, I hope so. Even although I’m your Projectionist and duty-bound to provide the greatest Oscar predictions, a small a part of me is thrilled when my guesses go mistaken, as a result of it implies that one thing surprising has occurred. With that perspective in thoughts, listed here are my projections for who and what might be nominated within the Oscars’ high six races, knowledgeable by business scuttlebutt in addition to current nominations from the Screen Actors Guild, Producers Guild of America and Directors Guild of America.
And could the issues I miss be scrumptious.
Best Picture
BelfastCODADon’t Look UpDuneKing RichardLicorice PizzaThe Power of the DogTick, Tick … Boom!The Tragedy of MacbethWest Side Story
Let’s begin with the locks. The 5 movies nominated by the Directors Guild — Belfast, Dune, Licorice Pizza, The Power of the Dog and West Side Story — ought to all be thought-about certain issues; in actual fact, within the years for the reason that academy expanded its greatest image lineup, just one DGA Award nominee (David Fincher’s The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo) didn’t crack the Oscars’ high race. CODA, King Richard and Don’t Look Up all earned greatest forged nominations from the actors guild along with PGA Award nods, so these three movies are sitting fairly, too.
Dune has the utmost nominations on the BAFTAS.
The two remaining slots might be hotly pursued. House of Gucci bought a SAG forged nomination however no love from the PGA; as an alternative, the producers nominated showbiz tales Being the Ricardos and Tick, Tick … Boom! Blockbusters like Spider-Man: No Way Home and No Time to Die have been making their greatest image instances, but when the populist Producers Guild didn’t nominate them, I don’t count on extra discerning Oscar voters will.
As the academy expands to incorporate extra worldwide voters, we’ve gotten extra greatest image nominees in a language aside from English, and there’s a sturdy group of worldwide contenders this 12 months that features Drive My Car and A Hero. And I haven’t even gotten to The Tragedy of Macbeth and The Lost Daughter, arty diversifications which may play higher with academy members than guild voters.
In the top, I’m projecting nominations for Tick, Tick … Boom! and The Tragedy of Macbeth, since there’s usually a powerful correlation between one of the best image lineup and one of the best actor race. Still, that is the primary 12 months shortly that the class has a assured 10 nominees, so let’s hope that wider internet snags a shock.
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, “Licorice Pizza”Kenneth Branagh, “Belfast”Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog”Ryusuke Hamaguchi, “Drive My Car”Denis Villeneuve, “Dune”
It’s tempting to go along with the DGA Awards’ lineup of Anderson, Branagh, Campion, Spielberg and Villeneuve, however the Oscars hardly ever match them five-for-five. So who would be the curveball?
Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog. (Photo: Netflix)
In current years, the academy’s administrators department has proven a willingness to appoint worldwide filmmakers like Paweł Pawlikowski (Cold War) and Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round), whose films didn’t even make one of the best image lineup. This, then, is the place I count on main recognition for Hamaguchi’s considerate drama Drive My Car, which has already netted greatest movie prizes from the New York Film Critics Circle, the Los Angeles Film Critics Association, and the National Society of Film Critics.
And that is additionally the place I feel we may get the snub of the 12 months: Spielberg feels susceptible after West Side Story underperformed on the field workplace, registered minimally with SAG voters, and missed out on key nominations from Hollywood’s modifying and cinematographers guilds. Could Hamaguchi actually knock out the largest filmmaker within the bunch? Count on the administrators department for some kind of twist.
Best Actor
Javier Bardem, “Being the Ricardos”Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Power of the Dog”Andrew Garfield, “Tick, Tick … Boom!”Will Smith, “King Richard”Denzel Washington, “The Tragedy of Macbeth”
Smith hasn’t been nominated for an Oscar in 15 years, however he’s a lock to be acknowledged for his dominant efficiency in King Richard. Cumberbatch leads probably the most awarded films of the season; he’s in, too. And Garfield and Washington showcase two particular skills — for singing and Shakespeare, respectively — that might be catnip for Oscar voters.
Will Smith in King Richard.
Could Leonardo DiCaprio nab the fifth slot for main the safe-bet greatest image nominee Don’t Look Up? He’s bought an important breakdown scene, however SAG didn’t nominate any of the movie’s particular person actors. (Perhaps the movie is so star-packed that nobody had any room to emerge because the MVP.) In the top, I undertaking that SAG nominee Bardem will keep forward of DiCaprio and darkish horse contenders like Peter Dinklage (Cyrano), Simon Rex (Red Rocket) and Nicolas Cage (Pig). But it will likely be shut.
Best Actress
Olivia Colman, “The Lost Daughter”Lady Gaga, “House of Gucci”Jennifer Hudson, “Respect”Nicole Kidman, “Being the Ricardos”Kristen Stewart, “Spencer”
Ask me about one of the best actress race in an hour, and I may need a wholly totally different lineup for you. I really feel pretty bullish on Kidman, Colman and Gaga, however there are such a lot of possible contenders vying for these final two spots that I maintain tearing up my projections and beginning anew.
Kristen Stewart performs Princess Diana in Spencer.(Photo: Neon)
Hudson and Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) had been each nominated by SAG, however their biopics haven’t proven a number of endurance. Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza) and Rachel Zegler (West Side Story) are main extra acclaimed films, however a winter compromised by the coronavirus hasn’t given Oscar voters a number of face time with both ingénue. And if I had my method, there could be two sure slots for Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) and Renate Reinsve (The Worst Person within the World), however they by no means fairly constructed the momentum they wanted this season.
People had been shocked when Stewart was snubbed by SAG, however I’ve a hunch she’ll nonetheless make it in: The 31-year-old actress is due for her first nomination, and she or he’s been hustling arduous, exhibiting as much as nearly each roundtable interview and Q&A for Spencer. Of the remaining contenders, I’ll play it protected and predict SAG nominee Hudson, who delivers her most subtle efficiency but in Respect.
Best Supporting Actor
Bradley Cooper, “Licorice Pizza”Ciaran Hinds, “Belfast”Troy Kotsur, “CODA”Kodi Smit-McPhee, “The Power of the Dog”Jared Leto, “House of Gucci”
Smit-McPhee’s efficiency as Kirsten Dunst’s artful son is a shoo-in, since by the top of The Power of the Dog, he’s emerged because the film’s stealth protagonist. A prosthetics-laden Leto does the kind of high-voltage transformation in House of Gucci that voters love, even when critics are tempted to sneer. And Kotsur’s response pictures energy the emotional third act of CODA: His daughter is pulling away, but now he understands her greater than ever.
Jared Leto as Paolo Gucci in a nonetheless from Ridley Scott’s House of Gucci.
Some thought Cooper’s two-scene function in Licorice Pizza is likely to be too small for Oscar recognition, however he made the SAG lineup, and it’s enormously flashy work from a frequent nominee. Ben Affleck additionally snagged a SAG nod, but it surely was for The Tender Bar, which isn’t thought-about a significant Oscar contender. I’d drop Affleck for a supporting efficiency from the higher tier of greatest image nominees, and of that pool — which incorporates Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog) in addition to Hinds and Jamie Dornan (Belfast) — I’m selecting Hinds, a veteran actor due for his first nomination.
Best Supporting Actress
Caitriona Balfe, “Belfast”Ariana DeBose, “West Side Story”Judi Dench, “Belfast”Kirsten Dunst, “The Power of the Dog”Ruth Negga, “Passing”
Dunst, DeBose, and Balfe have proven up in all of the locations you’d count on them, nabbing nominations from SAG, the Critics Choice Awards and the Golden Globes. Negga feels a bit extra susceptible: She’s merely unbelievable in one of many trickiest roles of the 12 months, however she missed a Critics Choice nod and her movie has been principally ignored this season. Still, I don’t need to think about a world the place Negga’s career-best work isn’t lauded, so let’s as an alternative give attention to who is likely to be the fifth girl on this lineup.
Judi Dench in Belfast.
SAG went for Cate Blanchett in Nightmare Alley, a nomination I’m certain even Blanchett wasn’t anticipating. Although Frances McDormand has been positioned as a lead actress candidate within the for-your-consideration adverts touting The Tragedy of Macbeth, her considerably restricted display time could as an alternative draw extra votes on this class. Aunjanue Ellis is excellent in King Richard, however SAG snubbed her; ditto Rita Moreno in West Side Story, who’d have a formidable profitable narrative if she will be able to handle to get nominated.
So right here’s my shot in the dead of night: If voters actually love Belfast, I feel Dench — the final face we see within the film, and an awfully affecting one at that — could make it in as a coattail nominee.