How a 92-year-old cleric silently halted Iraq’s slide again into warfare

When a pronouncement by a non secular scholar in Iran drove Iraq to the brink of civil warfare final week, there was just one man who might cease it: a 92-year-old Iraqi Shi’ite cleric who proved as soon as once more he’s essentially the most highly effective man in his nation.

Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani mentioned nothing in public in regards to the unrest that erupted on Iraq’s streets. But authorities officers and Shi’ite insiders say it was solely Sistani’s stance behind the scenes that halted a meltdown.

The story of Iraq’s bloodiest week in almost three years reveals the bounds of conventional politics in a rustic the place the ability to begin and cease wars rests with clerics — many with ambiguous ties to Iran, the Shi’ite theocracy subsequent door.

The Iraqis who took to the streets blamed Tehran for whipping up the violence, which started after a cleric based mostly in Iran denounced Iraq’s hottest politician, Moqtada al-Sadr, and instructed his personal followers — together with Sadr himself — to hunt steering from Iran’s Supreme Leader.

Sadr’s followers tried to storm authorities buildings. By dusk they had been driving via Baghdad in pickup vehicles brandishing machineguns and bazookas.

A Shiite Muslim holds up a photograph of Shiite Muslim cleric Moqtada al-Sadr (AP, File)

Armed males believed to be members of pro-Iranian militia opened hearth on Sadrist demonstrators who threw stones. At least 30 folks had been killed.

And then, inside 24 hours, it was over as all of the sudden because it began. Sadr returned to the airwaves and known as for calm. His armed supporters and unarmed followers started leaving the streets, the military lifted an in a single day curfew and a fragile calm descended upon the capital.

To perceive each how the unrest broke out and the way it was quelled, Reuters spoke with almost 20 officers from the Iraqi authorities, Sadr’s motion and rival Shi’ite factions seen as pro-Iranian. Most spoke on situation of anonymity.

Those interviews all pointed to a decisive intervention behind the scenes by Sistani, who has by no means held formal political workplace in Iraq however presides as essentially the most influential scholar in its Shi’ite non secular centre, Najaf.

According to the officers, Sistani’s workplace ensured Sadr understood that until Sadr known as off the violence by his followers, Sistani would denounce the unrest.

VIDEO: Supporters of Moqtada Sadr storm Iraq’s Republican Palace – a key authorities constructing inside Baghdad’s fortified Green Zone – after the highly effective Shiite cleric mentioned he was quitting politics pic.twitter.com/1SCxMg0iva

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) August 30, 2022

“Sistani sent a message to Sadr, that if he will not stop the violence then Sistani would be forced to release a statement calling for a stopping of fighting – this would have made Sadr look weak, and as if he’d caused bloodshed in Iraq,” mentioned an Iraqi authorities official.

Three Shi’ite figures based mostly in Najaf and near Sistani wouldn’t affirm that Sistani’s workplace despatched an express message to Sadr. But they mentioned it might have been clear to Sadr that Sistani would quickly communicate out until Sadr known as off the unrest.

An Iran-aligned official within the area mentioned that if it weren’t for Sistani’s workplace, “Moqtada al-Sadr would not have held his press conference” that halted the preventing.

‘Betrayal’

Sistani’s intervention could have averted wider bloodshed for now. But it doesn’t clear up the issue of sustaining calm in a rustic the place a lot energy resides outdoors the political system within the Shi’ite clergy, together with amongst clerics with intimate ties to Iran.

Sistani, who has intervened decisively at essential moments in Iraq’s historical past because the US invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein, has no apparent successor. Despite his age, little is understood publicly in regards to the state of his well being.

Meanwhile, most of the most influential Shi’ite figures — together with Sadr himself at numerous factors in his profession — have studied, lived and labored in Iran, a theocracy which makes no try and separate clerical affect from state energy.

#BREAKING Iraqi protesters have stormed the presidential palace in Baghdad, chanting anti-Iran slogans corresponding to “Iraq’s Federal Court in Hands of Iran’s IRGC”. pic.twitter.com/oJoJSDdXEq

— Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) August 29, 2022

Last week’s violence started after Ayatollah Kadhim al-Haeri, a high rating Iraqi-born Shi’ite cleric who has lived in Iran for many years, introduced he was retiring from public life and shutting down his workplace attributable to superior age. Such a transfer is virtually unknown within the 1,300-year historical past of Shi’ite Islam, the place high clerics are usually revered till dying.

Haeri had been anointed as Sadr’s motion’s non secular advisor by Sadr’s father, himself a revered cleric who was assassinated by Saddam’s regime in 1999. In saying his personal resignation, Haeri denounced Sadr for inflicting rifts amongst Shi’ites, and known as on his personal followers to hunt future steering on non secular issues from Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — the cleric who additionally occurs to rule the Iranian state.

Sadr made clear in public that he blamed outsiders — implicitly Tehran — for Haeri’s intervention: “I don’t believe he did this of his own volition,” Sadr tweeted.

A senior Baghdad-based member of Sadr’s motion mentioned Sadr was livid. “Haeri was Sadr’s spiritual guide. Sadr saw it as a betrayal that aimed to rob him of his religious legitimacy as a Shi’ite leader, at a time when he’s fighting Iran-backed groups for power.”

Sadrist officers in Najaf mentioned the transfer meant Sadr must select between obeying his non secular information Haeri and following Khamenei, or rejecting him and doubtlessly upsetting older figures in his motion who had been near Sadr’s father.

Instead, Sadr introduced his personal withdrawal from politics altogether, a transfer that spurred his followers onto the road.

The Iranian authorities and Sadr’s workplace didn’t instantly reply to request for remark for this story. Haeri’s workplace couldn’t instantly be reached.

Specialists in Shi’ite Islam say Haeri’s transfer to close his personal workplace and direct his followers to again the Iranian chief would definitely have appeared suspicious in an Iraqi context, the place solutions of Iranian meddling are explosive.

“There’s strong reason to believe this was influenced by Iranian pressure — but let’s not forget that Haeri has also had disagreements with Sadr in the past,” mentioned Marsin Alshammary, a analysis fellow on the Harvard Kennedy School.

“He directs followers to Khamenei when there’s no (religious) need to do so. And it seems unlikely a person in his position would shut down his offices which are probably quite lucrative,” she mentioned.

Violence is without doubt one of the instruments

As gun battles raged in central Baghdad, Sadr stayed silent for almost 24 hours.

During that point, Shi’ite non secular figures throughout Iraq tried to persuade Sadr to cease the violence. They had been joined by Shi’ite figures in Iran and Lebanon, in keeping with officers in these international locations, who mentioned strain on Sadr was channelled via Sistani’s workplace in Najaf.

“The Iranians are not intervening directly. They’re stung by the backlash against their influence in Iraq and are trying to influence events from a distance,” an Iraqi authorities official mentioned.

Baghdad was calm on Friday, however the impasse stays.

Sadr insists on new elections, whereas some Iran-backed teams wish to press forward to kind a authorities. Clashes broke out late within the week in oil-rich southern Iraq.

The authorities has been largely silent. Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi mentioned on Tuesday he would step down if violence continued, in an announcement made hours after preventing had already stopped.

“Where is the prime minister, the commander-in-chief, in all of this?” mentioned Renad Mansour of the London-based Chatham House assume tank. More violence was potential, Mansour mentioned.

“Sadr’s main focus is to become the main Shi’ite actor in Iraq, and so he wants to go after his Shi’ite opponents. In Iraq, violence is one of the tools used to compete.”