New Delhi: SBI Economists Expect the RBI to Announce a 0.25 per cent in the monetary policy commerce un has room for rate Cuts, according to an SBI Research Report released on Tuesday.
The report also states that going ahead a cumulative rate cut over the Cycle BE at Least 0.75 per cent, with two successive rates over February and April 2025.
With an intervening gap in June 2025, the second round of rate cuts could start from October 2025, it added.
The current pause by the us federal reserve gives some time for RBI to Ascertain Inflationary Expectations have been full anchored, the report said.
The report highlighted that monetary and fiscal coordination will require a delicate hand-Holding as the government Navigates on the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Path.
According to the report the RBI Liquidity Framework Needs to be revisited as a tight liquidity situation can advercely impact the flow of credit in the economy. The average liquidity deficit from December 16, 2024, Stands at Rs 1.96 Lakh Crore as of Jan 31, 2025, While The Average Government of India Cash Balance of the Same Period came
“Based on the RBIS Recent Liquidity Injections, We are Estimating The Durable Liquidity at the End of the Financial Year May Come Around Rs 0.6 Lakh Crore and System Liquidity May BE ARAND CORORP Report said.
It also highlighted that the global earcinues to exhibit resilience and is expected to grow 3.2-3.3 per cent by 2025. The Global Inflation Has Continued to SOFTINUD to SOFTIN Ost of the Central Banks Albeit with different speeds across geographies
The impact of trade wars on global growth, and in turns, on inflation remain uncertain at this stage. While the new US Administration’s Tariff Decision, So far, is confined to North America and to some expert China, the impression of full-speech Tariff Across All Counteries All CounTries has been summoned as money.
The general impression is that that a fresh round of trade will cost 30-50 bps for global gdp growth with differential impacts. The regional impact will be more nuanced and conditional on regional economic structure and the stage of the business cycle, according to the SBI Report.
The Indian Economy Against This Global Backdrop is entering the fourth quality in the shadow of the union budget 2025-26. With fiscal stimulus to support consumption, and an overall fiscal consolidation, the net market borrowings of the center is estimated at Rs 11.5 Lakh Crore for Fy26.
“We therefore Feel that overal Financing of the fiscal deficit will remove comfortable. Une of Rs 60,000 Crore is 3.8 per Cent of available AFS Securities as of Sep 2024, “The Report Added.
With Credit Growth Showing A Moderate Trend Despite The Sequational Slowdown, The Durable Liquidity Position in the Banking System at the End of Fy25 May ARAND RS 0.6 Lakh Croe D Rs 1 Lakh Crore Surplus, The Report Added.