Food costs might go up in coming months attributable to erratic monsoon – report

Online Desk

The inflation scenario within the nation might worsen in coming months because of the ongoing erratic pattern in rainfall, Bank of Baroda mentioned in report.

“Cumulative rainfall for the country has slipped in to the deficient zone at 11% below long-period average,” the report mentioned.

It identified that the El Nino phenomenon, related to a warming of sea floor temperature, has resulted in uneven distribution of rains with frequent breaks in August.

“These conditions are expected to intensify further from moderate to strong given the warming up of the tropical pacific, reflected through the SST (Sea Surface Temperature) anomaly. The kharif sowing has been up a tad bit from last year due to erratic rains and patchy distribution of rainfall across different regions. This in turn might translate in to higher inflation in coming months,” Bank of Baroda Economist Jahnavi Prabhakar mentioned within the notice.

The nation has additionally reached report ranges of electrical energy demand, 241 GW in comparison with peak demand of 212 GW final yr. 

Kharif Sowing 

Prabhakar identified that the entire kharif sowing has improved by solely 0.4% (1073.2 lakh hectares to 1077.8 lakh hectares) in contrast with final yr as of September 1, 2023. 

But on the constructive entrance, the acreage of rice has improved by 3.7% from final yr, she famous. Coarse cereals have grown contributed by larger sowing in Bajra (0.6%) and Maize(2.7%). Sugarcane sowing has additionally noticed a pointy acceleration from 2022.

The elements which have proven a damaging development in sowing space nevertheless are pulses(-8.5%), cotton, oil seeds (-0.9%) and Jute & Mesta(-5.7%) respectively in contrast with final yr.

Monsoon

Monsoon performs a big function within the agricultural output and therefore for financial development. But in response to IMD, the monsoon was extremely unfavourable within the month of August.

In accord with the evaluation, areas within the japanese belt of India together with Bihar, Jharkhand, and Chhattisgarh have obtained solely poor rainfall within the interval of June to September this yr. Further, states akin to Kerala and a few states in North East(Manipur, Tripura and Mizoram) even have been witnessing decrease rainfall for a similar interval.

Himachal Pradesh nevertheless continues to obtain excessive rainfall. The state had additionally witnessed unprecedented injury to lives and belongings attributable to extreme rains and flash floods earlier this yr.

The remaining elements of the nation have obtained regular rainfall. 

The precise rainfall this yr nevertheless continues to be comparatively lower than final yr (31mm vs 36mm). It can also be thus far decrease than the conventional rainfall (50.9mm). 

The reservoir stage as a % of complete capability presently stands at 63% as on 31 August 2023 in contrast with 82% within the final season.  

The complete storage accessible presently in 150 reservoirs stands at 77% of storage final yr and 91% of common storage for the final 10 years. 

The highest reservoir ranges has been registered within the Northern area, with a complete of 83% efficiency. Other areas akin to Central (73% vs 77% final yr), Western (71% vs 88%) together with Eastern area (48% vs 62%) and Southern area( 49% towards 90%) have reservoir ranges this yr in contrast with final yr.
      
Meanwhile, the notice identified that IMD nevertheless is anticipating a standard monsoon in September 2023.

The inflation scenario within the nation might worsen in coming months because of the ongoing erratic pattern in rainfall, Bank of Baroda mentioned in report.

“Cumulative rainfall for the country has slipped in to the deficient zone at 11% below long-period average,” the report mentioned.

It identified that the El Nino phenomenon, related to a warming of sea floor temperature, has resulted in uneven distribution of rains with frequent breaks in August.googletag.cmd.push(operate() googletag.show(‘div-gpt-ad-8052921-2’); );

“These conditions are expected to intensify further from moderate to strong given the warming up of the tropical pacific, reflected through the SST (Sea Surface Temperature) anomaly. The kharif sowing has been up a tad bit from last year due to erratic rains and patchy distribution of rainfall across different regions. This in turn might translate in to higher inflation in coming months,” Bank of Baroda Economist Jahnavi Prabhakar mentioned within the notice.

The nation has additionally reached report ranges of electrical energy demand, 241 GW in comparison with peak demand of 212 GW final yr. 

Kharif Sowing 

Prabhakar identified that the entire kharif sowing has improved by solely 0.4% (1073.2 lakh hectares to 1077.8 lakh hectares) in contrast with final yr as of September 1, 2023. 

But on the constructive entrance, the acreage of rice has improved by 3.7% from final yr, she famous. Coarse cereals have grown contributed by larger sowing in Bajra (0.6%) and Maize(2.7%). Sugarcane sowing has additionally noticed a pointy acceleration from 2022.

The elements which have proven a damaging development in sowing space nevertheless are pulses(-8.5%), cotton, oil seeds (-0.9%) and Jute & Mesta(-5.7%) respectively in contrast with final yr.

Monsoon

Monsoon performs a big function within the agricultural output and therefore for financial development. But in response to IMD, the monsoon was extremely unfavourable within the month of August.

In accord with the evaluation, areas within the japanese belt of India together with Bihar, Jharkhand, and Chhattisgarh have obtained solely poor rainfall within the interval of June to September this yr. Further, states akin to Kerala and a few states in North East(Manipur, Tripura and Mizoram) even have been witnessing decrease rainfall for a similar interval.

Himachal Pradesh nevertheless continues to obtain excessive rainfall. The state had additionally witnessed unprecedented injury to lives and belongings attributable to extreme rains and flash floods earlier this yr.

The remaining elements of the nation have obtained regular rainfall. 

The precise rainfall this yr nevertheless continues to be comparatively lower than final yr (31mm vs 36mm). It can also be thus far decrease than the conventional rainfall (50.9mm). 

The reservoir stage as a % of complete capability presently stands at 63% as on 31 August 2023 in contrast with 82% within the final season.  

The complete storage accessible presently in 150 reservoirs stands at 77% of storage final yr and 91% of common storage for the final 10 years. 

The highest reservoir ranges has been registered within the Northern area, with a complete of 83% efficiency. Other areas akin to Central (73% vs 77% final yr), Western (71% vs 88%) together with Eastern area (48% vs 62%) and Southern area( 49% towards 90%) have reservoir ranges this yr in contrast with final yr.
      
Meanwhile, the notice identified that IMD nevertheless is anticipating a standard monsoon in September 2023.