The upcoming assembly elections in Bihar, scheduled for October-November, are generating significant political activity. The NDA, under the leadership of Nitish Kumar, is focusing on maintaining its existing advantage in the state. The coalition is leveraging the combined influence of Nitish Kumar and Narendra Modi. The political narrative is largely being driven by the NDA. It appears to be benefiting from the current environment, particularly after ‘Operation Sindoor’. The NDA is constructing a multifaceted strategy that incorporates caste equations, nationalism, and Hindutva. The key question is whether the opposition pairing of Tejaswi Yadav and Rahul Gandhi can effectively counter the NDA’s strategic approach.
The alliance between CM Nitish and PM Modi has strengthened, focusing on a more refined approach to caste equations. The positive environment created by ‘Operation Sindoor’, conducted by the Indian Army, and the Modi government’s decision to conduct a caste census, has deprived the opposition of a key issue. The BJP is planning to use these issues to its advantage, and it will be challenging for the India alliance to overcome this strategy.
‘Operation Sindoor’ as a Political Tool for the NDA. Bihar is set to hold its first assembly elections after ‘Operation Sindoor’. Following the Pahalgam attack, PM Modi had vowed from Bihar to eliminate terrorists. The Indian Army successfully took out terrorist hideouts in Pakistan through ‘Operation Sindoor’. The BJP and its allies are attributing the success to PM Modi, creating a narrative that benefits the NDA. This approach helps the NDA push nationalism as a central political agenda in Bihar.
Strong anti-Pakistan sentiments are already present in Bihar. The BJP expects ‘Operation Sindoor’ to have a positive impact, similar to the air and surgical strikes. PM Modi’s frequent references to Operation Sindoor in Bihar rallies are influencing the political climate in favor of the NDA. Tejaswi and Rahul Gandhi will need to develop strategies to counter the NDA’s nationalistic stance.
NDA’s Strong Caste Equations in Bihar. The NDA coalition in Bihar includes the BJP, JDU, Chirag Paswan’s LJP, Jitanram Manjhi’s HAM, and Upendra Kushwaha’s party. JDU and BJP have worked to strengthen caste equations. The BJP’s core voter base consists of Rajputs, Brahmins, Bhumihars, Kayasthas, and Vaishyas. The party has also made gains among OBC and Dalit voters. Nitish Kumar’s JDU has a core voter base of Kurmis and EBCs. Manjhi has a strong base among the Musahars, while Chirag Paswan holds influence in the Dusadh community among the Dalits. Upendra Kushwaha’s political success depends on the Koiri votes.
The NDA has developed a plan to contest the Bihar elections, focusing on consolidating support from upper castes, Kurmis, EBCs, Koiris, and Dalits. The NDA aims to secure around 65% of the votes in Bihar. It will be challenging for Rahul Gandhi and Tejaswi Yadav to win power in Bihar without disrupting the NDA’s caste-based strategy.
NDA’s Caste Census Strategy. Bihar politics is significantly shaped by caste dynamics. OBCs constitute 65% of the population, and Dalits constitute 17%. Rahul Gandhi and Tejaswi Yadav were working to challenge the Modi government on the caste census. However, the Modi government has now included a caste census with the upcoming census, taking away one of the key issues the India alliance intended to use.
The NDA has a more robust caste-based strategy compared to the India alliance. The recent announcement by the Modi government regarding the caste census is expected to benefit the NDA. Nitish Kumar had already conducted a caste survey in Bihar, and the Modi government’s decision to conduct a caste census will be significant in the elections. Tejaswi and Rahul will need to identify new issues to counter the NDA’s strategy.
Using Modi and Nitish’s Names and Work. The NDA plans to campaign in the Bihar assembly elections based on the work and reputations of PM Modi and CM Nitish Kumar. They have clearly stated that Nitish Kumar will be the NDA’s Chief Minister candidate in 2025. The election strategy will focus on CM Nitish Kumar’s leadership and the achievements of his government. PM Modi is considered the most popular face of the NDA. The NDA constituent parties have decided to contest the Bihar elections based on PM Modi’s name and work.
Since the Lok Sabha elections, PM Modi has been specifically focusing on Bihar. By regularly visiting Bihar, PM Modi is focused on development and shaping the political environment. The opposition’s response to the Modi-Nitish partnership is the Rahul-Tejaswi duo. The outcome of the Bihar elections will reveal which pairing resonates most with voters.
BJP’s Push for Hindutva Agenda. The BJP is working to strengthen its Hindutva agenda in Bihar. The opposition faces a challenge in countering the BJP’s Hindutva approach. The BJP has deployed Union Minister Giriraj Singh, known for his strong Hindutva stance, to mobilize BJP workers and reach out to majority voters. He also organized a Sanatan Yatra to unite Hindu votes.
Union Home Minister Amit Shah has announced the construction of a Mata Sita temple in Bihar, similar to the Ram temple. The BJP’s strategy is to consolidate Hindu votes through Hindutva, given the prominent role of caste-based politics in Bihar. The BJP is well-prepared for the Bihar elections, confident in its strategy and hoping to secure another term under Nitish Kumar. The BJP is carefully considering all aspects, including caste dynamics, sympathy votes, and the impact of Operation Sindoor. The party is making every effort to ensure electoral success.