A tricky highway forward

For Muthuvel Karunanidhi Stalin, who turns 68 on March 1, this would be the final problem of his profession. If he and his occasion, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), fail to dislodge the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) within the Tamil Nadu election this time too-the latter has been in workplace for a decade-Stalin’s hopes of occupying the coveted chief minister’s seat in Fort St George (the seat of the state administration) could also be misplaced perpetually.For the DMK, the sweeping victory within the 2019 Lok Sabha election (the party-led alliance gained 38 of the 39 seats) got here as a great addition in its preparations for the 2021 meeting ballot. Despite the pandemic, Stalin has not let go of the momentum. He has been video-conferencing with occasion cadre and has additionally been holding all-party conferences and bodily protests over choose points. The occasion has additionally reorganised the district committees, bifurcating some to make them extra manageable and giving duty to extra second- and third-tier leaders to energise the occasion within the districts. The election of Durai Murugan, 82, as occasion normal secretary to interchange the late Ok. Anbazhagan might have additionally put attainable intra-party rumblings to relaxation.Other than introducing Prashant Kishor’s I-Pac as ballot advisor, the DMK continues with its cadre-based technique from the 2016 meeting ballot. The district-wise cadre-centric webinars are on, however the occasion has nonetheless not been in a position to whip up youth momentum, just like the final time spherical. The DMK continues to be specializing in younger and first-time voters, highlighting points akin to NEET (National Eligibility cum Entrance Test), NEP (National Education Policy) and unemployment.The DMK faces a number of challenges, although. The first is the issue of underestimating the Edapaddi Ok. Palaniswami (EPS)-led AIADMK and the groundwork the ruling occasion has accomplished. With its allies, there are seat-sharing considerations, and throughout the occasion, there’s dissent to handle. There’s additionally the interior problem from throughout the DMK first household, second-guessing the strikes of his insurgent half-brother M.Ok. Azhagiri, 69, and protecting vital management over the prolonged household. Another deterrent is that the DMK stays prime heavy with a bunch of ageing, leaders who’ve little join with voters or points.The DMK’s benefit is the anti-incumbency AIADMK faces after 10 years in energy and the truth that in contrast to Stalin within the DMK, apolitical voters should be satisfied that EPS and his deputy O. Panneerselvam (OPS) won’t be combating amongst themselves after the polls. The DMK doesn’t have any seen weaknesses proper now, however issues may evolve as soon as seat-sharing with allies and candidate choice begins.The allies would be the identical as in 2019, with the Congress, VCK (Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi), MDMK (Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam), CPI, CPI(M), the IUML (Indian Union Muslim League) and some different minority-based events. The 2019 election victories produced MPs from many allies, whose events will now demand a proportionate variety of seats. This will likely be true of the Congress greater than others, given the assorted factions and aspirants. Allies like Vaiko’s MDMK and Thol Thirumavalavan’s VCK will need as many seats as they’ll get to have the ability to save their election image post-poll. Considering the problem of letting minor allies contest on their very own, the DMK had talked the 2 events into contesting on its Rising Sun image within the 2019 Lok Sabha election. They gained.”Seat-sharing itself may be a drawn-out affair, particularly with the VCK, which has some grassroots base,” says Prof. Ramu Manivannan, head, division of political science and public administration, University of Madras. This time, the allies are additionally desirous to contest on their very own symbols. This could possibly be an issue, however there’s little probability that the DMK will yield a lot floor, particularly within the absence of Karunanidhi. Apart from organisational ambitions, the DMK has to persuade its voters that they are going to have the ability to type a single-party authorities, which alone within the Tamil Nadu context alerts a secure authorities.An actual stumbling block might emerge if the DMK seeks to place Stalin’s son Udhayanidhi within the limelight, even when solely to share his marketing campaign burden. The AIADMK and different rivals are already pitching on the event versus dynasty rhetoric to run down the DMK. “A lack of innovation and appropriate political response to the challenges thrown up by the BJP and AIADMK are also weaknesses,” says Manivannan.Stalin has been the occasion chief for all sensible functions for the previous 20 years. As chief minister, Karunanidhi nonetheless held sway until 2011, when the occasion misplaced the meeting ballot. At the organisational degree, particularly within the appointment of office-bearers and nomination of DMK candidates for varied elections, Stalin has been working the present because the 2001 meeting ballot. He additionally held many of the negotiations with allies and took the selections, which Karunanidhi endorsed. Stalin has been a minister and was deputy chief minister for 5 years (2006-11). He has all the time stored a staff of occasion veterans because the mainstay of his decision-making, with inputs from pleasant sources since 2011, says political commentator N. Sathiya Moorthy. As of now, there’s nothing distinct about Stalin’s marketing campaign. His village panchayat strategy-a throwback to 2016, when Stalin travelled throughout the state, assembly particularly with the youth-is nonetheless widespread, drawing massive crowds. That did impress the youth, because the outcomes confirmed. The DMK alliance had the best ever tally-98 of 234 seats-for a shedding mix in Tamil Nadu. His marketing campaign thus far appears to rely extra on anti-incumbency in opposition to the AIADMK, the purported infighting between EPS and OPS, and the assorted prices of corruption which have been making the information.Inputs from Kishor’s I-Pac staff go on to Stalin whereas the occasion principally attracts and executes the marketing campaign methods. Indications are the I-Pac staff will keep within the background because the DMK might not wish to give the impression that the marketing campaign was “stage-managed” by skilled campaigners. Such a sentiment may boomerang for each the DMK and AIADMK as a piece of the voters, particularly the aged, have come to model them as koothadi (puppet dancer) events disconnected from floor realities.”Although it has hired Kishor for the campaign, the emphasis on Dravidian identity and defending state interests are the twin pillars of DMK’s strategy this time. The DMK campaign will revolve around the performance of the AIADMK government in terms of Centre-state relations and surrendering of state rights,” says Manivannan. Party insiders argue that Stalin would do a lot better if he goes again to the normal marketing campaign strategies as a substitute of “the excessive reliance on I-Pac, which is cutting critical links between Arivalayam (the party HQ) and the districts and grassroots”.Another problem is Azhagiri, and that is regardless of the DMK dealing with the post-Karunanidhi succession effectively compared to the AIADMK, the place the shadow of the late J. Jayalaithaa’s aide V.Ok. Sasikala, who’s due for launch from jail later in January, continues to be trigger for fear. Azhagiri is threatening to disrupt the DMK if his son will not be accommodated in a good place within the occasion. He has clout within the southern districts of the state and has hinted at launching a celebration within the identify of his father that can align with the BJP.