Bihar’s political future is nearing a verdict with the release of exit polls for the 2025 assembly elections. Projections from leading agencies such as Axis My India and Today’s Chanakya suggest the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is positioned to lead in the 243-member assembly. However, the opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB) is anticipated to mount a formidable challenge, indicating a potentially close race.
Axis My India’s exit poll data estimates the NDA will secure between 121 and 141 seats. The Mahagathbandhan is projected to win 98 to 118 seats. Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) is expected to gain a small number of seats, possibly up to two. Today’s Chanakya provides a more favorable forecast for the NDA, predicting 160 seats for the alliance, 77 for the MGB, and 6 for other political entities.
Consensus from nine exit polls released on November 11 places the NDA’s expected seat count around 147, with the MGB projected to secure about 90 seats. The Jan Suraaj Party is anticipated to win one seat, while other smaller parties could collectively win around five seats. The final vote tally will be revealed on November 14.
Pollsters are advising caution, emphasizing the finely balanced nature of the election. Pradeep Gupta, CEO of Axis My India, described the contest as ‘a close election’. He highlighted the Jan Suraaj Party’s potential vote share, estimated at 4%, and suggested that a significant portion of these votes might have been drawn from traditional NDA supporters, a factor that could influence seat outcomes.
Analysts also note that new political entrants are often underrepresented in opinion polls. Should Kishor’s party achieve a higher vote share, potentially 8-10%, the election dynamics could shift considerably.
In a comparison to the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, exit polls at the time had largely predicted a victory for Tejashwi Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), forecasting significant losses for the NDA. The final results, however, showed the NDA winning 125 seats, just enough to form a government, while the MGB secured 110 seats. The RJD emerged as the single largest party with 75 seats, closely followed by the BJP with 74.
Beyond the seat projections, this election is noteworthy for its record-breaking voter turnout of 66.91% and a historic milestone: women voters outnumbered men for the first time. The Election Commission reported that 71.6% of women exercised their franchise, a substantial increase from the 62.8% turnout among men, representing the widest gender voting gap in Bihar’s electoral history. This heightened female participation is considered a crucial factor that could sway the final results as Bihar awaits the official election declaration.