Afghanistan’s construction of a dam on the Kunar River is poised to create a significant water crisis for Pakistan, a move viewed as a direct retaliation for recent border clashes and air strikes. The Taliban regime has issued firm orders for the rapid completion of the dam, prioritizing national control over this critical resource.
This strategic water initiative by Afghanistan, coupled with existing water disputes with India, places Pakistan in a precarious position, facing what some describe as a “water war” on multiple fronts. The Kunar River is indispensable to Pakistan’s water security, serving as a key contributor to the Indus River system that sustains its agricultural economy.
The planned dam aims to generate 1,000 megawatts of hydroelectric power for Afghanistan. However, its completion is expected to cut Pakistan’s water supply from the Kunar River by 25% to 30%. This substantial reduction threatens to cripple agriculture in key provinces like Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, impacting food production and potentially leading to widespread irrigation shortages. The implications also extend to a significant loss of electricity generation, potentially causing power outages for millions.
Afghan leadership has clearly stated its intention to manage its water resources independently, with directives to expedite the dam’s construction using only domestic resources. This assertion of water sovereignty is a clear signal of intent.
Pakistan’s vulnerability is heightened by the river’s geographical path. Although the Kunar River originates partly in Pakistan, its flow through Afghanistan empowers Kabul to control its return. Crucially, no existing water treaty obligates Afghanistan to maintain a specific flow to Pakistan, leaving Islamabad with limited options to mitigate the impending water crisis. This situation highlights the growing use of water as a geopolitical weapon in the region.